Oscar Nominations Predictions 2012

Predicting the Oscars can be tricky. Sometimes it's easy, but the beauty of the Academy is that it can surprise you at the oddest times. When it comes to Best Picture, the Academy has been extremely unpredictable the last five years or so.
After The Dark Knight failed to nab a Best Picture nomination in 2009, public opinion was so strong that the Academy changed its rules- the first time it did so since your grandparents were your age. For two years, there were ten nominees for Best Picture, even though only one film won, like always. This led to even more disapproval from critics and members alike- films were being nominated that didn't deserve it! (See: An Education, A Serious Man, Winter's Bone, even The Blind Side.) But the flip side of the coin is that films like Up and Toy Story 3- critically and publicly loved films that normally wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell- were getting nominated. But the experiment seemed to be a failed one. For this year's ceremony the Academy has changed their rules again- this time, there will be anywhere between five and ten nominees, with one winner like always. This way there can be more worthy films nominated, but without a strict number to stick to, they can "trim the fat," if you will.
Only time will tell if this tactic will work. In the meantime the Academy has created the most difficult scenario possible to predict its nominations- not only do you have to guess what films will be nominated, you have to guess how many as well!
We all know I'm never gonna get it right, so in that spirit, let's jump right in!

*Keep in mind these are what I think will get nominated, not what I think should be nominated. The Academy and I differ in our tastes for film. Also I don't predict the winners until I have the actual nominees in front of me.*

 

Best Picture (8 nominees)

The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

Alternate: Midnight in Paris

Seven nominees sounds like a nice round number, but I chose eight because it's so freaking hard to choose! So maybe they will have just as hard a time. The competition seems to be between two films, the silent movie The Artist and the drama The Descendants. The Help and Hugo are also critically beloved and are solid secondary films. Moneyball and War Horse had Oscar bait written all over them when they came out, but haven't been keeping up the pace they should. They will probably still get in, but they're mostly filler here. Dragon Tattoo is also being overlooked by some people, but after being recognized by almost all the guild awards, the Academy should come around. Bridesmaids is definitely the dark horse on my list, but after the critical Producers Guild nomination, the film is hard to ignore. You also can't forget the fact that it's one of the best-reviewed films of the year, created multiple headlines about how women have finally proved they're funny, and is one of the most talked-about comedies in the last decade.
My alternate is Midnight in Paris because, while the Academy does love Woody Allen, it's been many years since he's had a Best Picture nominee, and this film isn't exactly a revelation among his work.
And lastly, while we'd all love to see Harry Potter be nominated here, it's been ignored by practically every pre-Oscar award, and it came out in the summer, slimming down its chances from slim to practically none.

Best Director

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Alternate: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

With more than five Best Picture nominees, it makes sense that the Director nominees would all be Picture nominees as well. In that case, Allen is the only candidate who sticks out on my list, but in a normal year, it's not uncommon to see someone nominated here who's not on the Best Picture list. They may want to reward Allen for the biggest hit of his career. Otherwise, Hazanavicius and Payne are shoo-ins, as is Scorsese, for making his first kid-friendly movie. While War Horse isn't generating the kind of love it should, the Academy never misses a chance to nominate Spielberg here.
My alternate is Fincher for one of the darkest movies of the year. He got the Directors Guild nomination, so he stands a decent chance here, even though his film is slipping steadily from voters' minds.

Best Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

While Clooney and Dujardin are the shoo-ins here (and the award will inevitably go to one of them), the rest are difficult to predict. Pitt's performance in Moneyball is said to be a career-best, so even if the film is forgotten for Best Picture, he should be remembered here. Fassbender bared it all (literally) and capped off a stellar year with the movie Shame, in which his performance is actually better than the movie itself. He also can say that he is the reason the film is rated NC-17. Gosling had two Oscar-worthy performances this year, in The Ides of March and Drive. While it's possible he may split his own vote because of this, I choose the former film because he actually speaks in that movie.
Lastly, DiCaprio's decades-spanning performance in J. Edgar is truly wonderful, but the film was not warmly received, so he will probably be forgotten.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Alternate: Charlize Theron, Young Adult

This film has four shoo-ins (four!) and only one spot which was difficult. Close turns in a career-best performance as a woman pretending to be a man to get work in Albert Nobbs. (Think of it as a humorless Mrs. Doubtfire, and as a period piece set in Ireland.) Streep can't get in front of a camera without getting nominated, but her humbleness means they never tire of doing so. Plus her performance as Margaret Thatcher was totally convincing. Michelle Williams was the best thing about her movie, as the sexy but troubled Marilyn Monroe. And no one can forget Davis as a maid holding onto her dignity in The Help.
That fifth slot is tricky. I choose the most talked-about performance of the year, in which a pretty little thing transformed herself into a vicious, ugly little thing. Mara as Lisbeth Salander was what millions of readers the world over were expecting, and more- she was truly terrifying, and yet sympathetic and believable. Young Adult isn't generating much buzz, but Theron's hilarious performance as a prom queen all grown up definitely stays in people's minds.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Alternate: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Not a whole lot of contenders for this category, it seems. Plummer will ultimately win the award for his sweet and hilarious turn as an 80-year-old widower who finally comes out of the closet. The rest of the nominees are just filler. Branagh is said to be grand as Laurence Olivier, Brooks was memorably cruel as a gangster in Drive (an against-type performance for him), and Hill is surprising in one of his first dramatic roles, as a math whiz in Moneyball. Nolte is really my hopeful choice here; Warrior, while it's a great film, isn't attracting a lot of attention in award season, but his performance as an ex-alcoholic father trying to hang on to his separated sons is heartbreaking.
The movie Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, based on the popular avant-garde book, isn't wooing critics like it should be, so Von Sydow might just earn the film's only nomination as a mute man who aids a young boy in his quest for answers.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Alternate: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

This is always an interesting category. Bejo and Spencer are shoo-ins here, being the most memorable parts of their movies. Nominating two different actresses for the same movie is actually a common practice here, so Chastain should also get nominated, not only for her funny but shocking turn as a naive housewife, but also for her great debut year. Woodley has an uphill battle ahead of her because of her young age, but the film is bound to get recognized in the Best Picture category, so it would be a crime to forget her here.
But of course, McCarthy is the one everyone will be talking about. Comedic roles do sometimes get recognized in the supporting categories, even weird ones (think Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder). Since she is by far the best part of the best comedy of the year, she would be a major omission if the Academy were to forget her.
And McTeer is being recognized in other places, but since Albert Nobbs isn't picking up much steam (it looks really boring), she will probably be forgotten, and Glenn Close may be the film's only nomination.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

Alternate: War Horse

The Descendants will probably end up winning here, even if it doesn't win Best Picture. The Help and Hugo were both splendidly adapted from beloved books, but don't feel like adaptations. Moneyball could have potentially been a very boring movie, but with the help of Oscar winner Aaron Sorkin, they made it pop. And, maybe I'm overestimating Dragon Tattoo's chances. But it got a Writers Guild nomination and also expertly adapted a complex (and slow-moving) book into an interesting and fast-paced thriller, and features one of the best fictional characters of the year, in Lisbeth Salander.
War Horse was adapted from a well-liked play, and while a nomination here would make sense to go along with a Best Picture nomination, the film really isn't getting that much enthusiasm, so it's bound to get left behind somewhere.

Best Original Screenplay

50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Alternate: Young Adult

The Artist will definitely win here, even though the film features practically zero dialogue. Woody Allen's scripts frequently get nominated here, so Midnight in Paris should definitely get recognized, even if it's forgotten elsewhere. Ditto for Bridesmaids, where this category is actually where it has the best chance. A Separation is a critically-acclaimed Iranian film about a couple attempting to get a divorce. Its nomination here would cement its win for Best Foreign Language Film. And while 50/50 isn't a typical Oscar movie, other awards are recognizing how unique it is, in bringing the idea of a young person getting cancer into a comedy. The film has a pretty good shot at being recognized here.
And Young Adult was written by the Oscar-winning writer of Juno, Diablo Cody, so this script has Oscar bait all over it. But the film isn't that funny, so it'll probably be left behind.

Best Animated Feature

The Adventures of Tintin
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Alternate: Arthur Christmas

If I may say so myself, 2011 was a weak year for animation. Without any major box-office successes, the Academy has to make do with some critically-acclaimed films...and one token nomination for a huge disappointment.
As Steven Spielberg's first animated film, Tintin should easily score a nomination here, as should Rango, a critically-acclaimed film that disappointed at the box office. The predecessors of Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots were nominated in the past (Puss is a spin-off of Shrek, a film that won this award ten years ago), and these entries were at least better than Happy Feet Two. And even though Cars 2 was awful, Pixar always gets nominated, and the Academy often can't tell the difference between a good film and a well-made film.
While Christmas movies tend to not get nominated, Arthur Christmas still turned out to be one of the best animated films of the year, so if one of these is wrong (I'm thinking Puss in Boots), this one will swoop in and grab it.

The Academy Award nominations will be announced in the early morning hours on Tuesday, January 24th, and the ceremony itself will be the night of February 26th, on ABC. Get excited!

Popcorn Pick- January 2012

January is typically the weakest month for new releases, as it's too late for Oscar hopefuls to come out, but too early for the spring movies hoping to hit it big. But there will be no pessimism from me- it's a new year, and it's gonna be a good one! And my picks this month aren't even half bad- a hopefully-exciting thriller, another addition in a popular sci-fi franchise, and one magical re-release make this month worthy of using those movie passes you got for Christmas.
Let's jump right in!

Friday, January 6th
There is no Pick this week due to the release of my Best and Worst Films of the Year list. Check it out here.
(Also, there's no good new releases coming out this week.)

Friday, January 13th
Beauty and the Beast 3D

This Friday the 13th feels lucky!
After the enormous success of The Lion King 3D last fall, Disney is revamping several classic films by converting them to 3D and re-releasing them. Next up is this Oscar-winning 1991 megahit, (hot on the heels of its 20th anniversary) about a bookish girl who is imprisoned in a lonely enchanted castle, full of talking furniture and appliances, and ends up falling in love with the lord of the manor, a huge, hulking hairy beast who reveals his gentle side. With scares, humor, and lavish musical sequences, this delighted kids the world over, and had enough story to keep their parents entertained as well. Many people's favorite animated Disney film.
While it won two Oscars for its music, this film has the unique distinction of being the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture, beginning a long line of extremely successful '90s Disney movies.




Friday, January 20th
Underworld: Awakening

Speaking of beasts...
This is the fourth film in the sci-fi/action franchise, yet another movie series to switch to 3D. Kate Beckinsale returns as Selene, a vampire warrior. In this installment, Selene wakes up in the future to find that humans have joined in the war against vampires and werewolves, and there are new weapons being held by all sides. Dark and action-packed as usual, this may not be a big hit since it's being released in January, but you know what, I encourage any vampire movie that doesn't have the silly tone of Twilight.









Friday, January 27th
Man on a Ledge

This complicated thriller starts out with a very simple idea, given away in its title: a man writes a suicide note, then climbs out on the ledge of his high-rise apartment building, attracting the attention of hundreds of people below. But he has other plans besides jumping. The trailer goes into more detail about the plot, so I won't give anything away here. Suffice to say that it looks like it has many twists and will get people's hearts racing.
Sam Worthington (Avatar) leads an impressive cast, which also includes Elizabeth Banks and Ed Harris.









So while you're grieving over starting another semester of school or returning to work, trudge over to your local movie theater and sample the local cuisine- if you choose wisely, you won't be disappointed.

Best and Worst Films of 2011

Another year gone!
When reviewing the previous year, some people choose things like world events, politics, pop cultural events, things of that nature to paint the picture of what that time period was like. Other people focus on things that aren't important- like movies. I gladly belong to the latter group.
We all go to the movies. Even if we see different things and have different tastes, we're all entranced by the power film has over us, to make us forget our lives for a while and get lost in a good story. When the movie is good, we tell our friends to see it. We think about it when we should be thinking about other things. We spend too much money not only on the ticket for the movie, but on the concession stand food. And when a movie is bad, it will ruin our whole day. We still tell our friends about it. We still think too much about it. And we still believe we spent too much on it. We all share the same passion for movies, even if some of us have more of it than others.
It is in that spirit that I write this list. Not in believing that my opinion is all-powerful, and not that these picks are set in stone. I write in the belief that everyone has an opinion, and that everyone tries to rank the movies they've seen in their head, and knowing it can be difficult to choose the best movie out of a group. I always try to represent the common moviegoer in my writings- you'll find no independent films on this list. All of these films were widely released and widely seen, and widely talked about in other places.
As always I encourage other people's opinions and would love to know what you agree and disagree on.
So I proudly present to you my fourth annual Best and Worst Films list, for the year 2011!

"Top 10"

10. Captain America: The First Avenger

The advertisements made it look corny, and its framing subplot to connect it to the upcoming Avengers movie was unnecessary. But this movie was undoubtedly an audience-pleaser, more so than Thor, the other Marvel superhero movie of the summer. I was not the only one surprised to find that the movie actually didn't suck- that it was in fact, everything a popcorn movie should be! It was exciting, funny, and didn't require a lot of thinking but at the same time didn't insult the audience's intelligence. Chris Evans was a good choice to play the Captain, even if he was unusually straight-faced. Starting the movie with him as a super-skinny shrimp gave us a hero we could actually root for, once he was beefed up and was actually capable of kicking Nazi ass. This movie also boasts the most memorable villain of the year, in Hugo Weaving's Red Skull, a James Bond-ian villain out to destroy the world. A great surprise of a movie.





9. Horrible Bosses

One of the best comedies of the year snuck into theaters almost unannounced, but this loud, brash, and rude movie caught everyone's attention in a number of ways. First, it featured a really dark plot for a comedy- three unhappy guys plot to kill their respective bosses who are ruining their lives. Second, it has a bad-girl performance from America's girl-next-door Jennifer Aniston, who is actually believable as the office slut. In fact it has reliably great performances from the rest of the cast, most notably Charlie Day as the rambunctious nice guy who doesn't have a clue, and Kevin Spacey as the world's most evil boss, glaring his way into our subconscious. And third, it's laugh-out-loud funny from beginning to end. And don't forget to watch the bloopers playing over the end credits.







8. The Help

The grown-up movie event of the year, this film attracted not only your mom and grandma, but also anyone interested in movies about race or social change. Based on the really-big-deal book, the movie features a searing performance from Viola Davis as a maid holding onto her dignity, as well as a head-turning, star-making turn by Octavia Spencer as her sassy friend. And of course, Emma Stone is always great. Hiring a complete unknown, Tate Taylor, to direct the movie was a risky choice, one that clearly paid off, as he is clearly a director who has not yet been influenced by the Hollywood system. Most everyone agrees the book is better, but when an adaptation is this good, no one will mind.








7. Warrior

The best movie you probably missed.
Not a big hit, probably due to its being about an Ultimate Fighting Championship, which is not exactly for every taste. But people who did choose to see it got a movie that's about much more than guys beating the crap out of each other. The story of two estranged brothers who enter the same fighting tournament, without telling anyone they are related, is both moving and shocking. One brother is desperate for cash, a long shot and the ultimate underdog. The other is a revelation who knocks his opponents out in less than thirty seconds, but refuses to speak to anyone and remains a mystery to his adoring fans. Joel Edgerton and Tom Hardy turn in superb performances as the brothers, but it's Nick Nolte as their former alcoholic father who will truly make you cry. The genius of the movie is making you care about its characters, so that your loyalties are torn when the two brothers inevitably face off in the ring for the final match. You feel every punch.



6. Bridesmaids

This movie made all kinds of headlines about how it signifies the rise of the Funny Woman- as if we haven't had them in pop culture for over a hundred years. While the news stories are mostly self-serving, the movie behind them is definitely worth talking about- an all-female Hangover, with a hilarious Kristen Wiig squirming her way through her best friend's impending wedding, and competing with another beautiful and perfect bridesmaid. Also revealed a revelation in the unforgettable Melissa McCarthy, acting sans makeup and sans restrictions of any kind to play a new version of the Quirky Friend. Brash, obscene, and offensive- but also sweet, realistic, and of course, funny as hell.
(There's a rumor circulating that there will be a sequel without Kristen Wiig. Say it ain't so!)







5. The Muppets

The first Muppet movie in twelve years was a silly, sweet, and musical take on the classic characters- brought to you by the guy who made Forgetting Sarah Marshall! Art reflects life in this tale, when the Muppets are retired and irrelevant, and only a few fans hang on to their memorabilia and wait for Kermit and the gang to return. Bringing the charm and the fun of the Muppets back- all without CGI or converting to 3D- was a blast of nostalgia for adults and a breath of fresh air for kids. It's not as good a reboot as one would hope for (why didn't Frank Oz return as Miss Piggy?), but when it's this much fun, who cares?
The best line was actually delivered by a non-Muppet actor, Chris Cooper: "Maniacal laugh, maniacal laugh..."








4. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Die-hard fans of the already-existing franchise were shocked that a Hollywood studio would want to remake the Swedish movie so soon after its release (two years!), but luckily, they handed the reins to director David Fincher, famous for such dark films as Seven and Fight Club. While keeping the story set in the same country, he adopted a style all his own- dark and grimy but technologically competent and quick. The complicated story is anchored by a solid Daniel Craig, and of course Rooney Mara is a revelation as Lisbeth Salander, the most famous literary character of the last ten years.
Is it too dark for Oscar voters? They've been known to like dark before, with The Departed and No Country For Old Men winning. This one has a solid chance.







3. 50/50

The most original movie of the year was marketed as a Judd Apatow-like raunchy comedy for guys. The film is about guys, but not strictly for the male gender. The first film to ever tackle the issue of getting and living with cancer as a comedy uses realistic situations and attitudes to tell a story with heart, humor, and yes, sex. Joseph Gordon-Levitt has proved once again how much of a shining young star he is as a young guy who unexpectedly develops a tumor on his spine. Seth Rogen is his best friend who sticks around and helps him deal with it. To describe the film as Superbad meets Terms of Endearment is an insult; this film is in a class all by itself- it's managed to pull off being genuinely funny and genuinely sad at the same time, while still having its target audience be teenagers and young adults. The best comedy of the year, and the most relevant.






2. Mission: Impossible- Ghost Protocol

The fourth film in the action series is also the best. Topping the tremendous third entry was a challenge, so they opted for doing everything totally different. This one is bigger, visits more exotic locations, and has more humor than usual. Tom Cruise is joined by the hilarious Simon Pegg, the gorgeous Paula Patton, and the intense Jeremy Renner, a superb ensemble. Each action setpiece is better than the last: sneaking down the hallway behind that screen. Renner jumping down the fan shaft to land safely on floating magnets. That intense climactic fight in the parking garage. And of course, Cruise climbing over the windows of the world's tallest building, the most adrenaline-packed action sequence in years.
Tom Cruise, you are officially forgiven for the crappy Mission: Impossible II.






1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows- Part 2

What does it say about us that the best movie of the year is a sequel? Or a fantasy film? Or that it's essentially only half a movie? What does it say about us, that I'm not the only one who thinks it's the best movie of the year?
It says how much love we have for the amazing franchise about the bespectacled boy wizard who finally defeats a dark lord, with the help of his faithful friends. This film corrected most of the mistakes from Part 1 (only focusing on Harry's point of view, feeling incomplete) and delivered a knockout film with real emotion, huge battle scenes, amazing special effects, heart-breaking music, and one huge revelation about Snape. Quibble if you will about the changes made from the book, or about the unnecessary epilogue, the fact remains- this film satisfied more fans than any other movie based on a book, ever. (I'm looking at you, Twilight.) Here's to the end of an era!
And here's to the hope that the series will finally get recognized by the Oscars. Never gonna happen, but we can still dream, can't we?




Honorable Mention- The Lion King 3D

One of the greatest animated films of all time- still the highest-grossing traditionally animated film ever- returned to theaters this year, with a 3D upgrade. It was originally slated for a limited two-week release, but after earning number one at the box office for both weeks, Disney extended its run. Now that's the power of the king. Who cares that the 3D was clunky at times and distracting? Who cares that the ticket price was ridiculously high? This was a chance to see the movie on the big screen again- or for some, for the first time. The unforgettable prologue alone, with dozens of different animals all flocking to Pride Rock, set to "The Circle of Life," was worth it.
For better or for worse, this film has started a new trend of converting classic movies to the third dimension and rereleasing them. Next up, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars, and even Titanic.