This is bound to be one of the most interesting Oscar shows in memory. Unfortunately there's no big box-office hit in the running a la Titanic or The Lord of the Rings, but some truly great films are here, as well as some of the greatest performances ever nominated for acting.
So check out my predictions for who will take home the gold- funnywoman Ellen DeGeneres will host on Sunday, March 2nd on ABC.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Who will win: 12 Years a Slave
Who should win: 12 Years a Slave
Yep, nine nominees. They're still doing that. And yep, you probably haven't heard of at least one of the above films. But some of them are truly great.
This is an extremely close race between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. While Slave is the Schindler's List of this generation- a heartbreaking, tough-to-watch true story about slavery in America, Gravity is something entirely new- a thriller about astronauts that is not only told as truth, but feels real. I absolutely adore both films, and while Gravity gets my choice for the best film of the year, it is really the most entertaining film of the year. 12 Years a Slave is the most important film of the year, the one most deserving of the Best Picture award. I also loved Captain Phillips; kudos to it for getting nominated.
Watch up till the end to see who gets it- there's also the potential for an American Hustle upset.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Who should win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Let 12 Years a Slave win Best Picture, and give the directing prize to the greatest technical achievement of the year, to Cuaron (director of Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Children of Men). McQueen could still take it, but he's hindered by the fact that he's not that well known in the United States- although that didn't stop Michel Hazanavicius from winning for The Artist.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Who will win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Who should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
McConaughey is getting all the attention for turning his career around and becoming a serious actor. I am impressed with his performance (I'm also a fan of him on HBO's new show True Detective), but my vote goes to Ejiofor as the lead in Slave. The film is told through his character's eyes, and he is unforgettable. McConaughey probably has it in the bag, but DiCaprio could upset for his frenetic turn as Jordan Belfort.
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Who will win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Who should win: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Blanchett is the front-runner. Don't ask me why.
My vote goes to Bullock, the lead in what is essentially a two-person play about an astronaut adrift in space. And I'm not even a huge Sandra Bullock fan! But I absolutely loved watching her, and nothing but her, for an hour and a half. I also enjoyed Dench as a mother searching for her long-lost son, and while I enjoy Adams in everything, I did not like American Hustle.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who will win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who should win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Leto will win for returning to acting to star as a transgender woman living with AIDS. I was extremely impressed with his performance, but I vote for Fassbender as a sadistic slave owner, one of the screen's greatest villains this year. I was torn between him and Abdi in his film debut- his Somali pirate went toe to toe with Tom Hanks and put us on the edge of our seats. Hill was great as DiCaprio's demented accomplice, but it was really just a comedic performance.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Who will win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Who should win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
It's a close race between Nyong'o in her film debut and Hollywood golden girl Lawrence, who won last year. Nyong'o's performance is much more dramatic and will take it. I love Lawrence in everything she does, but I also have to vote for the newcomer. It should also be noted that Squibb was the best part about Nebraska, a film I hated.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Who will win: 12 Years a Slave
Who should win: 12 Years a Slave
Slave will win to go along with its Best Picture win, and it deserves it- the film is many things, but never boring.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Who will win: Her
Who should win: Her
This will probably be Her's only win, and it is probably the most original movie of the year- a fascinating idea that is futuristic, but feels like it could be real in just a few years. Blue Jasmine could also win, but the Academy is unlikely to give Woody Allen an award right now with his name in the headlines in the worst way.
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Who will win: Frozen
Who should win: Frozen
Anime film The Wind Rises could upset, but Disney's megahit Frozen should have this in the bag. I also really enjoyed The Croods, but I don't think it's really Oscar material.
Best Original Score
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
Gravity is going to sweep the technical categories. Yes, even this one. Its music- especially at the very end- is unforgettable. Her could potentially win, and I wish Saving Mr. Banks had a better shot. Its nomination is its victory.
Best Original Song
"Happy," Despicable Me 2
"Let It Go," Frozen
"The Moon Song," Her
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Who will win: "Let It Go," Frozen
Who should win: "Let It Go," Frozen
This category has been in the news because one of its nominations was revoked- the title song for a super-obscure faith film Alone Yet Not Alone. This is only the sixth time in the Oscars' history a nomination was revoked and has raised many eyebrows about how films get on the ballot.
But anyway, while "Happy" is the song being played on the radio and on TV, this race is between "Let It Go," Disney's showstopper of a number in the middle of the film, and "Ordinary Love," U2's beautiful ode to Nelson Mandela. I am personally torn between the two, but ultimately have to go with the more catchy Disney song, and the Academy will too. Disney has a long history of winning in this category. (Toy Story 3 won just a few years ago.)
Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
Cuaron's films are known for their really long single takes, and the single 17-minute shot that opens Gravity is so good it's almost ridiculous- it sets the scene and introduces the characters, then plunges them into hell. Kudos also goes to Captain Phillips, one of the best-paced films I've ever seen.
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
See above. Gravity will take it for putting the viewers in space right along with our Sandy. This film made me feel physically uncomfortable watching it, and as strange as that seems, that's actually a compliment.
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
Who will win: American Hustle
Who should win: Her
The Academy will feel the need to honor American Hustle somewhere, and it seems most likely to be here, if Lawrence doesn't win. The film does have a very potent 70s flavor. The Great Gatsby could also win, but it has a better chance in Costume Design. But my vote goes to Her, which created a near-futuristic world, with only slight changes made to our society so that everything is familiar and serves the story.
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Who will win: American Hustle
Who should win: 12 Years a Slave
This is between American Hustle (the 70s) and The Great Gatsby (the 20s). Both have very loud costumes that work for the story very well. I suspect they'll go with the film that was better received, which is Hustle. But I don't go for big; I prefer historically accurate. My pick is for 12 Years a Slave (the 1840s).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Who will win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who should win: Dallas Buyers Club
Dallas will easily take it for realistically giving its main characters AIDS. How the hell did a movie with the word Jackass in the title get nominated for an Oscar?
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
I loved the visual effects in The Hobbit and Iron Man 3, and I loved how they served the stories so well. Either one of them could have won in other years, but like Avatar before it, Gravity had to invent some new techniques in order to achieve the visual effects in its film. They are magnificent, and if they hadn't worked, the film wouldn't have worked.
Why is The Lone Ranger nominated here? It's a Western and didn't have very many special effects- and what it did have wasn't very good.
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
Part of the reason Gravity works so well is because it realistically depicted sound in space- or rather, the lack thereof. We hear sound the way astronauts hear sound- through their spacesuits or through their communications channels. Kudos also goes to The Hobbit's sound effects, especially the dragon's voice.
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Who will win: Gravity
Who should win: Gravity
The Academy tends to prefer musicals for this category (Les Miserables won last year), but it seems unlikely they will give it to Llewyn Davis. So, Gravity it is.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar
Who will win: The Hunt
No popular films nominated this year, which makes it hard to predict. But The Hunt stars Mads Mikkelson (TV's Hannibal) and looks especially dramatic.
Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet From Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
Who will win: 20 Feet From Stardom
They will go with feel-good this year, instead of hard-hitting journalism. So 20 Feet From Stardom, about professional backup singers, will win. It's also worth noting that The Square is a Netflix original film- very impressive for the streaming service which has just begun to get into original content.
Best Animated Short
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
Who will win: Get a Horse!
Get a Horse! is the Mickey Mouse short that ran theatrically with Disney's Frozen, so it would be nice to see it win.
Best Live Action Short
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Helium
Just Before Losing Everything
That Wasn't Me
The Voorman Problem
Who will win: That Wasn't Me
I don't know anything about the nominees in this category.
Best Documentary Short
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Who will win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
The Lady in Number 6 is about the oldest-known Holocaust survivor, and it just made headlines recently when the lady in question passed away.
That's it! Tune in on Sunday to see how well I did!
