Greetings, avid moviegoers! This year's Academy Awards are almost upon us! In my humble opinion, it was a weak year for movies, but as the following nominees show, some good ones slipped through. A lot of the categories this year are easy, but the biggest awards are really tough to predict, which makes this year very exciting.
It's important to note that this post tells two different stories: the story of who I think actually deserves to win, which is pretty straightforward; and the story of who I predict will actually win, which is much more complex. Here they are; may the best Boy win! And good luck to host Neil Patrick Harris!
Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
What will win: Birdman
What should win: Boyhood
Here it is, folks: the big question. Birdman or Boyhood? Both are incredible films made from singular visions. Both are funny and moving. Both have time as a central theme. Both could win the biggest award in show business. And that's about where the similarities end. Will the Academy choose the 12-year epic about the struggles (and haircuts) of an ordinary Texas boy moving into adulthood? Or will they choose the one-take wonder about Broadway and the nature of celebrity?
First, I should say: in any other year, Selma and Whiplash would have fighting chances. But in a year full of masterpieces, those two got rudely pushed aside.
Second, this is difficult to answer because the Academy usually has a very short memory when it comes to honoring movies. For a long time Boyhood was the favorite to win, racking up the early prizes. But Birdman has swooped ahead with the later prizes, including the coveted PGA award. I predict their memory will be short this year, and since they also can't resist honoring a movie about Hollywood that's so well made, Birdman will take home the top prize.
My opinion: Birdman is a masterfully made film, but I'm puzzled as to why the director chose this story to showcase his awesome camera and planning skills. If the movie is told in real time, why not tell a story actually in real time? (While the movie is maybe an hour and a half long, the story stretches over several days.) Boyhood is not a perfect film- it drags in the second half- but it is still far and away the best film of the year. No one has ever attempted to film a single narrative over 12 years, and watching the finished product proves it's not just a stunt. It's extremely moving and surprisingly funny, not to mention fascinating, watching all the characters (played by the same actors!) age and change over time. It's truly less of a movie and more of an experience. At the end of it, you feel like Mason is one of your friends. And in my mind, that deserves the Best Picture award.
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Who will win: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Who should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
The strange thing about this category is, it has no bearing on the outcome of Best Picture at all. Many predict the two awards will be split between Birdman and Boyhood, but I think it just as likely the same film will win both. And since Birdman is pulling ahead in all categories, including this one, Inarritu will win his first Oscar this year for his best film.
While I liked the stream-of-consciousness flick, I still believe Linklater deserves this award for his bold gamble that paid off big time. Give Birdman all the technical awards; but give the major prizes to the little indie that could.
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Who will win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
This is another exciting category that's tough to call. Keaton seems to be the clear favorite: he's an industry veteran celebrating his greatest role and his first nomination, and he's racked up awards left and right. But Redmayne is pulling forward and surprised everyone by winning the all-important SAG award. He could upset, but I think the general thought process is that he's young and will have more chances in the future. Keaton will win come the big night.
I loved Keaton in that movie, but I generally prefer actors who play real-life people, and in that sense Redmayne is my favorite. His spot-on performance as Stephen Hawking was heartbreaking and hilarious, not to mention disturbing at times. It should be noted, I love Cumberbatch to death, but his Alan Turing was basically a carbon copy of his Sherlock Holmes. I guess he's just nailed how to play Really Smart People.
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Who will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Who should win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Since this is Still Alice's only nomination, you'd think it wouldn't have a chance in hell; but Moore is the clear favorite and a shoo-in to win for her performance as a woman suffering from Alzheimer's. This is her fifth nomination, so the award will be honoring her career more than this single performance.
My choice is Witherspoon for the one-woman movie Wild. Performances like hers show that women can hold the screen just as well as men. Kudos also to Pike for her star-making, terrifying turn in Gone Girl. Wish she had a better chance to win.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Who will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Who should win: Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Simmons is the clear favorite and will win this race in a landslide. His sadistic music teacher made that movie, and it's by far his best role, an impressive statement for an actor that always brings his A-game.
But I wish more attention was being paid to Hawke for his role that saw him age 12 years, as a dad whose maturity mirrors the storyline of his on-screen son.
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Who will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Who should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Was Meryl Streep really nominated for an Oscar for playing a witch? Proof that she'll get nominated for just walking in front of a camera.
But it's Arquette that's the shoo-in to win this award, for her 12-year role as a mother of two, sometimes single, sometimes divorced, always struggling. She is heartbreaking but fierce…and she gets my vote, too.
Kudos also to the ravishing Emma Stone for her first nomination. This won't be her year, but don't worry, there's still time.
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
What will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
What should win: Birdman
While this award could conceivably go to Birdman for its biting depiction of Hollywood and wonderfully funny characters (or even to Boyhood for the sheer novelty of its idea), Wes Anderson will win his first Oscar for his biggest hit, The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Have I mentioned yet that I hated Grand Budapest? No, well I f***ing hated Grand Budapest. Anderson values imagery over story and character, and thus his films are always interesting-looking, very odd, and ultimately dull. My vote goes to Birdman for its originality and brilliant dialogue. I love Boyhood, but the film is mostly plotless, and thus the screenplay would be unimpressive on its own.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
What will win: The Imitation Game
What should win: Whiplash
Imitation Game is being shut-out in the other categories by the showier films. This category is its best chance at winning, and it seems to be the favorite after its WGA win. Theory of Everything is similarly well-written, but left a lot of viewers wanting more.
My pick goes to the awesome music-themed indie Whiplash, technically an original screenplay except that the director remade his own short film into a feature. The story of a young, starry-eyed drum player psychologically tortured by his teacher is captivating from beginning to end. I believe the finale will become a classic scene someday.
Kudos also to American Sniper, which turned a potentially boring story into a gripping and relatable war tale.
Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
What will win: Big Hero 6
What should win: Big Hero 6
This was a weak year for animation (no Pixar movie?!), so Disney's good-not-great superhero actioner should take the gold. The film is funny and sad, although could have been more exciting. It's definitely better than anything offered here, although The Boxtrolls certainly has its ardent fans.
Best Foreign Language Film
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
What will win: Timbuktu
What should win: ?
Difficult to predict, since there's no superstars this year, a la Amour. Timbuktu seems to be the movie of the moment, but Ida is the only film on the list nominated for any other award. It will probably be one of those two.
Best Documentary Feature
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga
What will win: Citizenfour
What should win: ?
Another difficult category to predict, since it doesn't have any superstars. While I would love to see a documentary from Netflix win the gold (Virunga, about a wildlife preserve in Africa), the award will probably go to the most current film on the list, Citizenfour, about Edward Snowden.
Best Original Song
"Lost Stars," Begin Again
"Grateful," Beyond the Lights
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Everything Is Awesome," The Lego Movie
"Glory," Selma
What will win: "Glory," Selma
What should win: "Everything Is Awesome," The Lego Movie
Selma was snubbed in a lot of categories. A lot. Of categories. But not this one. A win here will act as penance for not giving the film more love overall. Bonus points for being a socially relevant song.
My pick? Although "Grateful" is the prettiest song, no one saw Beyond the Lights. But everyone saw The Lego Movie, and everyone was singing "Everything Is Awesome" when they left the theater. (Everything is cool when you're part of a team…) The song is ridiculous, yes, but it's time this category got some spunk back. Plus, The Lego Movie was snubbed too. It should get some love.
Best Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything
What will win: The Theory of Everything
What should win: Interstellar
This award will go to one of the Best Picture nominees that doesn't have much chance winning elsewhere. Since Grand Budapest and Imitation Game are set to win for writing, that leaves Theory of Everything to win for music. That may sound like strange logic, but that's often the way it works.
While I think Imitation Game has the prettiest stand-alone score, Interstellar has the best score that works with the movie. Every note of suspense, yearning, heartbreak, or wonder, is felt through the music.
Best Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
What will win: Boyhood
What should win: Boyhood
Birdman probably should have won this award, what with all its visual trickery- but they fooled the audience into thinking there was no editing, and they did it a little too well, so it's not nominated. Kudos to both Imitation Game and Whiplash for elevating the material with tense, snappy editing. But none of the other films had to cull through 12 years worth of footage, so Boyhood should take this award, as is its right.
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
What will win: Birdman
What should win: Birdman
Birdman was the film that was made to look like it was all done in one take. (Apparently the longest take in the finished film is 15 minutes!) It will easily take this award for doing something no one else has done before- put viewers in the movie, right next to the characters.
Kudos to Unbroken for its distinctive military look that made the film watchable, even when nothing was happening on screen. And if I haven't said it enough, f*** Grand Budapest Hotel.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
What will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
What should win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Foxcatcher may have turned Steve Carell into a big-nose-wielding creep, but the Academy is going to find a way to honor Wes Anderson's many whimsical characters, and their many looks, from Grand Budapest.
Not surprisingly, my pick is the one which gave us Gamora the green-skinned assassin and Drax, the what-the-hell-is-that-on-his-skin-oh-my-God-they're-tattoos-that's-so-cool. Sadly, Guardians of the Galaxy will have to live with just the nomination.
Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
What will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
What should win: Into the Woods
Here's another chance for the Academy to honor Grand Budapest without having to actually give it Best Picture. Again, bright, whimsical costumes.
My usual personal choice in this category is for the most historically accurate costumes, but since both historical film's costumes fail to excite (Inherent Vice and Mr. Turner), my pick is for the fairy-tale musical Into the Woods. While I hate musicals, I can't deny the costumes for this film were an essential part of the story. Also, f*** Grand Budapest.
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
What will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
What should win: Interstellar
Grand Budapest will win, for the same reasons as for Costume Design. Ditto on my sentiments.
I almost chose Imitation Game here for its historically accurate depiction of war-torn England (very much a theme of the story- end the war as soon as possible), but I'm going with Interstellar because of not only the cool spaceship and otherworldly stuff they created, but for the bleak future Earth we saw, which felt eerily familiar.
Best Visual Effects
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
What will win: Interstellar
What should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
We may have some slight Oscar history here: this may be the first time that two movies from the same franchise/universe are nominated in the same category in the same year. Marvel made both Captain America and Guardians of the Galaxy, and unfortunately they kinda cancel each other out for recognition here. Add in the other superhero movie X-Men, and we're left with the other two. Interstellar will probably win for its epic scope and serious tone, for putting big, believable visual effects in what feels like a non-blockbuster.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes didn't win this award three years ago, so Dawn will probably follow in its footsteps, but I believe it deserves to win for how far along motion capture has come, in allowing talented actors to portray non-human beings. But since this is the film's only nomination, it doesn't have much of a chance.
Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
What will win: Whiplash
What should win: Interstellar
Difficult to predict. Birdman could take it because the film has such strong support, and the sounds of New York help to sell the film and make it more believable, even during the fantastical parts. American Sniper could win it for its depictions of war (creating an atmosphere of chaos out of calm), and Interstellar could win for its authentic depictions of space- Gravity won this last year. But this award generally goes to music-oriented films, and Whiplash wouldn't work without exactly the right music being played, which happens in almost every scene.
My pick goes to the one sci-fi film on the list. Creating a world you cannot visit seems like the most difficult task.
Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken
What will win: Interstellar
What should win: Interstellar
Without Whiplash in this category, it could go to either American Sniper or Birdman, for the same reasons listed above. But this category generally goes to action or sci-fi films, basically tech-oriented films. Which leaves Interstellar or The Hobbit, and we all know The Hobbit doesn't have a chance in Mordor. After five films, we've seen, and heard, it all before.
My vote still goes to Interstellar, because as I've said before, they created a world. Several, in fact.
Best Live Action Short
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call
What will win: Boogaloo and Graham
What should win: ?
I defer to the experts on this one. They say Boogaloo and Graham; so that's what I say.
Best Animated Short
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life
What will win: Feast
What should win: ?
Feast is the Disney short that ran theatrically with Big Hero 6. While the Academy generally goes for smaller, independent films in this category, it's hard to resist the oh-so-cute story of a puppy sharing his life- and meals- with his owner. It will easily win the heart of any voter, and would make a nice one-two punch if Big Hero 6 wins as well.
Best Documentary Short
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth
What will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
What should win: ?
Once again I defer to the experts. They say the HBO doc Crisis Hotline will take it as it's the most current and relevant to Americans.
That's all of them! I'll update later to see how close I was. Reminder that the 87th annual Academy Awards are THIS Sunday, February 22nd, on ABC. Watch it! If you don't have cable, figure it out!
