(Brief aside to talk about Oscars So White- yes, I agree that no actors of color being nominated for two years in a row is ridiculous. The Oscars have always taken pleasure in ignoring movies and performances that are popular, but when the omissions are this egregious, something needs to change. I applaud Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs and the top leadership on enacting change so swiftly. For those who missed the news, they plan on doubling their number of female and minority members in four years, and have instituted new rules on how long one can hold a membership- which will help wean out some of the older voters, always a major problem with what ends up getting nominated. Hopefully we'll see a much different set of nominees, and winners, next year and the years to come.)
I believe the two best films of the year (Inside Out and Star Wars) were shut out of the Best Picture race, and if you ask anyone else, they'll probably tell you something similar. But the deed is done, and I'm happy to report that for once, there isn't a single dud in the big race this year. Which makes predicting it all the more difficult.
As always, I give my predictions on what will win, and for those who care to hear it, I also give my personal opinion on who deserves to win the category.
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
What will win: Spotlight
While conceivably any film could win, there are four I'm focusing on in my prediction: Big Short, Mad Max, Revenant, and Spotlight. While The Revenant has an upper hand in being the most-nominated film this year, some think it's overrated. Spotlight is the more traditional, Oscar-y choice- but last year's win for Birdman was very unconventional and could show a shift in what they consider a worthy Best Picture winner. Enter the other two: The Big Short surprisingly won the PGA award for Best Picture, the best predictor of what will win the Academy's counterpart. And then there's the big question: how much support does Mad Max really have? Could a summer blockbuster action reboot really win Hollywood's top prize? The fact that it has ten nominations tells me it has a lot, but it could still walk away empty-handed come Oscar night. Stranger things have happened.
At the end of the day, the Oscars love to be old-fashioned. (Remember, just a few short years ago, they awarded a silent movie Best Picture.) Which is why my money's on Spotlight- it's a true story about an important issue and makes heroes out of journalists, a very old-fashioned notion. I think The Big Short is too hip for the Academy and Mad Max too...weird. If something else wins, it will be The Revenant- the best-made film of the year.
What should win: The Martian
If you care for my opinion, I rate The Martian as my favorite of the eight films. Sadly, without a Best Director nomination, it doesn't stand a chance here- but it should. While Mad Max is something entirely new, Room is lovely, Spotlight is important, and The Revenant is just a balls-to-the-wall bloody good survival story, The Martian is simply the most thrillingly entertaining film of the bunch. Matt Damon trapped on Mars while a cavalcade of stars playing NASA scientists race to bring him home? What's not to love?
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Who will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
First of all, shout-out to McKay: the director of Anchorman and Step Brothers is now an Oscar nominee! Who'da thunk?
This race is between two guys: Iñárritu and Miller. A director winning this award two years in a row hasn't happened since the 50s, which hurts Iñárritu's chances (he won last year for Birdman, a completely different film from The Revenant). And the Academy may want to recognize Miller, an industry veteran who made his best film. But again, how much support does Mad Max really have? I'm betting on not that much, and choosing Iñárritu.
Who should win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
I loved how Abrahamson made Room exciting and heartbreaking even though half the movie literally only takes place in one room, and I love how McKay knew his audience so well as to break the fourth wall and stop the movie to explain some crucial terms (with celebrity cameos, no less). But Iñárritu had the most daring gig of all, and he pulled it off with flying colors. The story of a starving fur trapper walking through the wilderness to a fort doesn't sound very interesting, but the movie grips you from frame one with its intense performances, beautiful landscapes, and its innate ability to put you beside the characters. He gets my vote.
(Side note: in a time when Oscars So White is on everybody's mind, it's comforting to remember that Mexican directors have won Best Director the last two years, and will probably make history by winning a third year.)
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
This is one of the few categories that's easy to predict: DiCaprio will win simply because it's his time- and because he truly suffered for this performance. You feel cold just watching him!
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Redmayne's performance. Too bad; I was kind of hoping for back-to-back wins. His performance as a transgender woman discovering her true identity and making the transition in a time and place far less accepting than this one, makes him the bravest actor of the year. I agree DiCaprio is overdue for his Oscar, but this award is about honoring a single performance, not a career of them- and I believe Redmayne has the better one.
I applaud Damon for carrying The Martian on his shoulders. Almost all of his screen time is spent alone, and he makes you feel his struggles.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Who will win: Brie Larson, Room
While there is a possibility of an upset by Ronan as an Irish immigrant lost and alone in America, this award will probably go to Larson for her unbelievable performance as the mother trapped in the room with her son. We feel her hopelessness and her fear when she's in the room, and we struggle to understand her internal conflict when she's out. Plus the Academy loves to honor young talent in this category.
Who should win: Brie Larson, Room
I'm not going to pretend that the Academy is picking the classiest actress for the classiest movie. Larson deserves it, end of story. She was one-half of the center of the most unusual movie of the year, and she very bravely let the audience into her (very small) world. I could identify with Ronan's character (who didn't feel lonely when they first moved away from home?), but it was the fact that I didn't even want to imagine the horrors of what Larson's character went through that makes hers the stronger performance.
Lawrence's nomination seems to be by default for every David O. Russell movie she's in: she's always wrong for the role, and she always ends up getting an Oscar nomination for it. And Rampling's nomination is one of the reasons the Academy needed to change. I'm sure she's a fine actress and I'm sure 45 Years is a fine film. But no one saw it. She shouldn't be here.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Stallone's nomination was put under scrutiny after the Oscars So White controversy- why was he nominated but no one else from the film?- but that seems to not have hurt his chances. Returning to the role he originated in 1976, the Academy will use the nostalgia factor to give him his first Oscar. However, we can't ignore the possibility of an upset, most likely from Rylance. Bridge of Spies is largely being left out of the awards conversation, but could still surprise people.
Who should win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Too bad actors don't win very often for playing villains. Hardy's turn as a ruthless fur trapper who will do anything to survive- and make some money- was an all-too-real-seeming enemy to Leonardo DiCaprio's hero. Plus, his "God is a squirrel" speech is surprisingly funny.
I like Ruffalo in everything he does, but his performance here felt a little cliched. And Bale was great as always in The Big Short, but they nominated the wrong actor- I felt Steve Carell gave the best performance in that movie.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Who will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Young rising star Vikander should win this award for playing the wife of a person who discovers they're transgender and transitions from man to woman. She goes from angry and hurt to accepting and supportive, and the audience takes the journey with her. It's an important performance in an important film, and the Academy recognizes that. There is a possibility Winslet will upset as the conscience behind the bull that was Steve Jobs, but I suspect they'll go with the young newcomer versus the star who already has an Oscar.
Who should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Vikander deserves to win for all the reasons stated above. Leigh's performance as an outlaw traveling to be hanged was great fun, but fun doesn't equal Oscar love. McAdams is a good actress, but I'm puzzled as to why her work in Spotlight was supposedly worth a nomination.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
What will win: Spotlight
Pretty easy choice here; as the stronger of the two Best Picture nominees in this category, the true story of successful and important journalism should walk away the winner. And it could end up being the film's only win.
What should win: Inside Out
Spotlight renewed my faith in journalism and Bridge of Spies was interesting, and I applaud Ex Machina for taking an old science fiction concept and making it feel new. But Inside Out was the most original movie of the year, taking viewers inside the brain (literally) of an adolescent girl as she grapples with a difficult cross-country move. Unfortunately, animated films never win this award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
What will win: The Big Short
It's between The Big Short and Room, the two best-written films in the category, and surprise surprise, they're both Best Picture nominees. The Academy should follow the lead of the WGA and give it to the lighter of the two, Big Short, for its breaking the fourth wall, wacky characters, and real-life importance.
What should win: Room
The Big Short was very funny, but I wasn't as impressed with it as everyone else seemed to be. I applaud The Martian for taking a science fiction story and making it feel like it could actually happen, and for being very funny to boot. But Room is the bravest of the nominees, not just because the first half takes place entirely in one room, but because they chose to devote the entire second half to the characters' recovery, not just a few scenes. Bonus points for the author adapting her own novel.
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
What will win: Inside Out
Easy choice here. This is the one category where box-office performance seems to have an effect on the winner. Pixar has a virtual lock on this category, and their latest masterpiece will easily take it. There is a very slight possibility of an upset from the adult-oriented art-house drama Anomalisa, but it probably won't happen.
What should win: Inside Out
I haven't seen most of the nominees, but I don't have to see them all to know that Inside Out is the best of the bunch. Wonderfully original and universally relatable, Pixar has brought themselves back from their own rut with one of their best films ever.
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
What will win: Son of Saul
No art-house hits this year, making it difficult to predict. There is some chatter about Embrace of the Serpent being Colombia's first-ever nominee in this category, but Son of Saul is a Holocaust movie from Hungary, and we all know how much the Oscars love World War II movies.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen any of the nominees.
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom
What will win: Amy
The winner here will depend upon which of the Academy's two favorite documentary categories they will choose to honor: war or music? If they choose war, then The Look of Silence will win, even though it is only interviews about a previous, unseen war and genocide. But the Academy tends to honor music films more often (they're lighter than genocide, you see), and so Amy will take it. The Amy Winehouse story is essential viewing for fans of the late singer, and is undeniably strong considering how much footage there is of her, not just as a famous person but pre-fame too.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to give an opinion here. However, I would love to see a Netflix film win- either Miss Simone or Winter on Fire.
Best Original Song
"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Writing's On the Wall," Spectre
"Simple Song #3," Youth
What will win: "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
It's between two songs: "Til It Happens to You" and "Writing's On the Wall." While the James Bond theme song could follow Skyfall's lead and win, the Sam Smith ballad is not particularly popular. The Lady Gaga song from the documentary The Hunting Ground will probably take it for its message- it's about her personal experiences as a sexual assault survivor. (More could be written about comparing this song to the definitely pro-rough sex song "Earned It," but I'll save that for someone else.)
What should win: "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
It's a pretty weak crop of songs this year, a trend that is becoming all too regular. "Til It Happens to You" and "Writing's On the Wall" are the two best, and while I want to vote for Spectre's theme song, its overall lack of energy and my general dislike of Sam Smith as a singer keeps me from voting for it. I also choose the Lady Gaga song for its heartbreaking social message.
"Earned It" isn't even the best song on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack; why is it nominated? Not to mention the other two songs, which are simply not good.
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: The Hateful Eight
Legendary composer Ennio Morricone has never won a competitive Oscar, and the Academy sees this as their chance to honor him. It's an unusual move, since Quentin Tarantino is a director known for having no original score in his films. Finally using a score- which sounds more like it's for a horror movie than a Western- was a great idea that will probably result in a golden boy. If something else wins, my money's on Bridge of Spies, as this may be that film's best shot at a win.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
Even though it may not technically be an "original" score, it's still the most exciting and the most epic of the five scores here. Unfortunately, its nomination was a long shot, so they'll have to be satisfied with just the nod.
Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: The Revenant
Like Best Picture, this category is similarly difficult to predict. The only thing I'm sure of is that it won't be Spotlight or Star Wars. Which leaves three movies with varying degrees of editing wizardry. If The Big Short ends up winning Best Picture, it'll also win here. The Revenant could win here even if it doesn't take Best Picture because of the film's technical accomplishments. But I'm having to guess how much people really love Mad Max, and it's a possibility it will sweep the technical categories. I pick The Revenant as I simply view it as more likely.
What should win: The Big Short
After viewing The Big Short, I can't deny it's the best-edited film of the year- fast, snappy, and a little overwhelming at times, just like the characters. I applaud Mad Max and Star Wars for using editing to heighten the emotions and add energy to the action, but The Big Short is an exercise in great editing, regardless of how you feel about the movie itself.
Best Cinematography
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Who will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
First of all, shout-out to McKay: the director of Anchorman and Step Brothers is now an Oscar nominee! Who'da thunk?
This race is between two guys: Iñárritu and Miller. A director winning this award two years in a row hasn't happened since the 50s, which hurts Iñárritu's chances (he won last year for Birdman, a completely different film from The Revenant). And the Academy may want to recognize Miller, an industry veteran who made his best film. But again, how much support does Mad Max really have? I'm betting on not that much, and choosing Iñárritu.
Who should win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
I loved how Abrahamson made Room exciting and heartbreaking even though half the movie literally only takes place in one room, and I love how McKay knew his audience so well as to break the fourth wall and stop the movie to explain some crucial terms (with celebrity cameos, no less). But Iñárritu had the most daring gig of all, and he pulled it off with flying colors. The story of a starving fur trapper walking through the wilderness to a fort doesn't sound very interesting, but the movie grips you from frame one with its intense performances, beautiful landscapes, and its innate ability to put you beside the characters. He gets my vote.
(Side note: in a time when Oscars So White is on everybody's mind, it's comforting to remember that Mexican directors have won Best Director the last two years, and will probably make history by winning a third year.)
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
This is one of the few categories that's easy to predict: DiCaprio will win simply because it's his time- and because he truly suffered for this performance. You feel cold just watching him!
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Redmayne's performance. Too bad; I was kind of hoping for back-to-back wins. His performance as a transgender woman discovering her true identity and making the transition in a time and place far less accepting than this one, makes him the bravest actor of the year. I agree DiCaprio is overdue for his Oscar, but this award is about honoring a single performance, not a career of them- and I believe Redmayne has the better one.
I applaud Damon for carrying The Martian on his shoulders. Almost all of his screen time is spent alone, and he makes you feel his struggles.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Who will win: Brie Larson, Room
While there is a possibility of an upset by Ronan as an Irish immigrant lost and alone in America, this award will probably go to Larson for her unbelievable performance as the mother trapped in the room with her son. We feel her hopelessness and her fear when she's in the room, and we struggle to understand her internal conflict when she's out. Plus the Academy loves to honor young talent in this category.
Who should win: Brie Larson, Room
I'm not going to pretend that the Academy is picking the classiest actress for the classiest movie. Larson deserves it, end of story. She was one-half of the center of the most unusual movie of the year, and she very bravely let the audience into her (very small) world. I could identify with Ronan's character (who didn't feel lonely when they first moved away from home?), but it was the fact that I didn't even want to imagine the horrors of what Larson's character went through that makes hers the stronger performance.
Lawrence's nomination seems to be by default for every David O. Russell movie she's in: she's always wrong for the role, and she always ends up getting an Oscar nomination for it. And Rampling's nomination is one of the reasons the Academy needed to change. I'm sure she's a fine actress and I'm sure 45 Years is a fine film. But no one saw it. She shouldn't be here.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Stallone's nomination was put under scrutiny after the Oscars So White controversy- why was he nominated but no one else from the film?- but that seems to not have hurt his chances. Returning to the role he originated in 1976, the Academy will use the nostalgia factor to give him his first Oscar. However, we can't ignore the possibility of an upset, most likely from Rylance. Bridge of Spies is largely being left out of the awards conversation, but could still surprise people.
Who should win: Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Too bad actors don't win very often for playing villains. Hardy's turn as a ruthless fur trapper who will do anything to survive- and make some money- was an all-too-real-seeming enemy to Leonardo DiCaprio's hero. Plus, his "God is a squirrel" speech is surprisingly funny.
I like Ruffalo in everything he does, but his performance here felt a little cliched. And Bale was great as always in The Big Short, but they nominated the wrong actor- I felt Steve Carell gave the best performance in that movie.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Who will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Young rising star Vikander should win this award for playing the wife of a person who discovers they're transgender and transitions from man to woman. She goes from angry and hurt to accepting and supportive, and the audience takes the journey with her. It's an important performance in an important film, and the Academy recognizes that. There is a possibility Winslet will upset as the conscience behind the bull that was Steve Jobs, but I suspect they'll go with the young newcomer versus the star who already has an Oscar.
Who should win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Vikander deserves to win for all the reasons stated above. Leigh's performance as an outlaw traveling to be hanged was great fun, but fun doesn't equal Oscar love. McAdams is a good actress, but I'm puzzled as to why her work in Spotlight was supposedly worth a nomination.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
What will win: Spotlight
Pretty easy choice here; as the stronger of the two Best Picture nominees in this category, the true story of successful and important journalism should walk away the winner. And it could end up being the film's only win.
What should win: Inside Out
Spotlight renewed my faith in journalism and Bridge of Spies was interesting, and I applaud Ex Machina for taking an old science fiction concept and making it feel new. But Inside Out was the most original movie of the year, taking viewers inside the brain (literally) of an adolescent girl as she grapples with a difficult cross-country move. Unfortunately, animated films never win this award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
What will win: The Big Short
It's between The Big Short and Room, the two best-written films in the category, and surprise surprise, they're both Best Picture nominees. The Academy should follow the lead of the WGA and give it to the lighter of the two, Big Short, for its breaking the fourth wall, wacky characters, and real-life importance.
What should win: Room
The Big Short was very funny, but I wasn't as impressed with it as everyone else seemed to be. I applaud The Martian for taking a science fiction story and making it feel like it could actually happen, and for being very funny to boot. But Room is the bravest of the nominees, not just because the first half takes place entirely in one room, but because they chose to devote the entire second half to the characters' recovery, not just a few scenes. Bonus points for the author adapting her own novel.
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
What will win: Inside Out
Easy choice here. This is the one category where box-office performance seems to have an effect on the winner. Pixar has a virtual lock on this category, and their latest masterpiece will easily take it. There is a very slight possibility of an upset from the adult-oriented art-house drama Anomalisa, but it probably won't happen.
What should win: Inside Out
I haven't seen most of the nominees, but I don't have to see them all to know that Inside Out is the best of the bunch. Wonderfully original and universally relatable, Pixar has brought themselves back from their own rut with one of their best films ever.
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
What will win: Son of Saul
No art-house hits this year, making it difficult to predict. There is some chatter about Embrace of the Serpent being Colombia's first-ever nominee in this category, but Son of Saul is a Holocaust movie from Hungary, and we all know how much the Oscars love World War II movies.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen any of the nominees.
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom
What will win: Amy
The winner here will depend upon which of the Academy's two favorite documentary categories they will choose to honor: war or music? If they choose war, then The Look of Silence will win, even though it is only interviews about a previous, unseen war and genocide. But the Academy tends to honor music films more often (they're lighter than genocide, you see), and so Amy will take it. The Amy Winehouse story is essential viewing for fans of the late singer, and is undeniably strong considering how much footage there is of her, not just as a famous person but pre-fame too.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to give an opinion here. However, I would love to see a Netflix film win- either Miss Simone or Winter on Fire.
Best Original Song
"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Writing's On the Wall," Spectre
"Simple Song #3," Youth
What will win: "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
It's between two songs: "Til It Happens to You" and "Writing's On the Wall." While the James Bond theme song could follow Skyfall's lead and win, the Sam Smith ballad is not particularly popular. The Lady Gaga song from the documentary The Hunting Ground will probably take it for its message- it's about her personal experiences as a sexual assault survivor. (More could be written about comparing this song to the definitely pro-rough sex song "Earned It," but I'll save that for someone else.)
What should win: "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
It's a pretty weak crop of songs this year, a trend that is becoming all too regular. "Til It Happens to You" and "Writing's On the Wall" are the two best, and while I want to vote for Spectre's theme song, its overall lack of energy and my general dislike of Sam Smith as a singer keeps me from voting for it. I also choose the Lady Gaga song for its heartbreaking social message.
"Earned It" isn't even the best song on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack; why is it nominated? Not to mention the other two songs, which are simply not good.
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: The Hateful Eight
Legendary composer Ennio Morricone has never won a competitive Oscar, and the Academy sees this as their chance to honor him. It's an unusual move, since Quentin Tarantino is a director known for having no original score in his films. Finally using a score- which sounds more like it's for a horror movie than a Western- was a great idea that will probably result in a golden boy. If something else wins, my money's on Bridge of Spies, as this may be that film's best shot at a win.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
Even though it may not technically be an "original" score, it's still the most exciting and the most epic of the five scores here. Unfortunately, its nomination was a long shot, so they'll have to be satisfied with just the nod.
Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: The Revenant
Like Best Picture, this category is similarly difficult to predict. The only thing I'm sure of is that it won't be Spotlight or Star Wars. Which leaves three movies with varying degrees of editing wizardry. If The Big Short ends up winning Best Picture, it'll also win here. The Revenant could win here even if it doesn't take Best Picture because of the film's technical accomplishments. But I'm having to guess how much people really love Mad Max, and it's a possibility it will sweep the technical categories. I pick The Revenant as I simply view it as more likely.
What should win: The Big Short
After viewing The Big Short, I can't deny it's the best-edited film of the year- fast, snappy, and a little overwhelming at times, just like the characters. I applaud Mad Max and Star Wars for using editing to heighten the emotions and add energy to the action, but The Big Short is an exercise in great editing, regardless of how you feel about the movie itself.
Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
What will win: The Revenant
While it's possible Mad Max will upset (people are still raving about the film's use of practical effects, which would be awarded here), The Revenant's brilliant camerawork should take the cake. Like Birdman, the director utilizes long takes and tracking shots, but this time, almost the entire movie takes place outside and in natural light. Add in Indian attacks, a bear mauling, and horseback chases, and it's a no-brainer. The Hateful Eight's cinematography was talked about a lot before it opened, but unfortunately most of the movie takes place inside a store, which kinda defeats the purpose of using the extra-wide lens.
What should win: The Revenant
I wasn't a fan of Mad Max's orange filter used throughout the entire movie. Every character looked sick, dirty and dying (which I'm sure was the intent) but also made the movie unpleasant to watch at times. The Revenant gets my vote for its breathtaking use of locations and sense of place.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
No real contest here. Nearly every character in Mad Max has some sort of makeup applied, whether they're scarred, dying, or just badass like Charlize Theron. The 100-Year-Old Man has great old-age makeup, but no one's heard of the movie. And The Revenant's makeup is largely just scars from the bear attack- not showy enough to win the award.
What should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Even though I'm not a huge fan of the movie, I have to admit that the makeup is a big part of its popularity. It helps to create a world that feels real- and disgusting.
Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
What will win: Cinderella
This category generally goes to the showiest costumes, and while that honor actually goes to Mad Max, I think they prefer beauty over... well, ugliness. Carol, The Danish Girl, and The Revenant have great period-piece costumes, but Cinderella has that beautiful blue dress. The fact that it's the movie's only nomination shouldn't be a hinderance.
What should win: The Revenant
I prefer authenticity over showiness- or beauty. The Revenant's costumes were essential to the story- they were all fur trappers, after all- and the crew dared to have the costumes be drab to make them look more authentic. I would be happy to see Cinderella win, though- the costumes are quite beautiful.
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
What will win: The Danish Girl
This category also goes for beauty and a certain amount of showiness, and The Danish Girl seems to be at the perfect cross-section: beautiful decor that helps tell the story, and it's a period piece. Bridge of Spies has brilliant period design from two countries, but it's not nearly as nice to look at. Mad Max could upset here, but I'm betting they'll stick to their usual pattern of awarding pretty sets. The Revenant being nominated here is puzzling since almost the entire movie takes place outside- how much production design was really needed?
What should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I prefer authenticity for this category as well, and Mad Max truly built a world, from the structures they lived in down to the vehicles and weapons they used. Everything had to be built and no detail was too small. Plus, this was the movie that gave us the flamethrower guitar. Kudos to The Martian for excellent use of NASA sets and Mars landscapes- it's not like they could film on location!
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
This category is between Mad Max and The Revenant, two heavy Best Picture contenders. Mad Max is the more showy of the two (there's a very impressive sandstorm sequence). The Revenant's nomination is mostly due to one scene- the bear attack. While it was terrifying and seemed very real, it may not be enough to win it the award.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
I'm going with nostalgia here; plus, I'd like to see Star Wars win as many Oscars as possible! Ex Machina gave us realistic-looking robots, but that's nothing new. The Martian's visual effects were practically invisible, which one could argue makes them better than obvious CGI, but doesn't buy my vote. Mad Max did indeed have impressive special effects, but Star Wars also used CGI to help create (or rather, re-create) a world/galaxy, and it was a better film to boot.
Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I'm banking on Mad Max having plenty of support and winning both the sound awards, although I can see The Revenant or Star Wars winning in an upset. Sound contributes to world-building, and good sound is not noticed by the audience.
What should win: The Revenant
I'm kicking myself for not choosing Star Wars, but I'm reminded that The Revenant filmed in the middle of nowhere, and so sound was crucial to making the settings believable. Also, Leo didn't talk for much of his screen time, but the movie never felt silent.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Again, I'm assuming Mad Max has a lot of support and so will win a lot of technical awards. This is an obvious one it could collect. If there's an upset, it will still be from either The Revenant or Star Wars. Probably Star Wars, the showier of the two.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VII- The Force Awakens
This category is specifically for sound effects, so that's a no-brainer. I don't care that lightsaber hums, Wookie growls, and droid squeaks were all invented in the 70s- they still work, dammit!
Best Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer
What will win: Day One
As the sole American film of the bunch, I'm going with Day One.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen any of the nominees.
Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
What will win: World of Tomorrow
I defer to the experts and pick the acid-trip comedy World of Tomorrow.
What should win: Sanjay's Super Team
No, I haven't seen most of the nominees. But Pixar's latest short (it ran theatrically with The Good Dinosaur) is one of its best, and the only kids' film I know brave enough to tackle religion- and religion in the modern age, no doubt. This lovely (and action-packed) short speaks volumes with no dialogue. It's hard to imagine a better film is nominated here.
Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
What will win: Body Team 12
Body Team 12 is about fighting the Ebola virus, which makes it the most timely of the bunch. However, an HBO doc won last year and two are nominated this year- Claude Lanzmann and A Girl in the River. One of them could win as well- more likely Girl in the River.
What should win: N/A
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to make a real judgment.
So there you go, all 24 categories. As my luck goes, I'll probably have the worst score in years. This race is very unpredictable, and I've done my best!
The 88th annual Academy Awards are next Sunday, February 28th on ABC.
