Maybe I should just do the abridged version and guess La La Land will win everything.
I joke, of course, but the musical romance has tied the record for the most nominations ever for a single film- 14! It needs to win 12 to break the winning record, and I see a good chance of that happening.
Beyond that, there's some good nominees this year. There's also some super-depressing movies and art-house curios nominated for the big award, as per usual. At least Oscars So White is over...for now. But despite all the progress made in getting actors and directors (even editors!) of color nominated, the film that will win every award is the one about two pretty white people falling in love, all the while singing about how great traffic jams in L.A. are.
Read on to see my predictions for who will take home the gold! As always, I've also provided my own opinion for which films should win, for those who care.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
What will win: La La Land
The little musical has become a juggernaut, winning every award from here to Timbuktu. The charming romance about dreamers in Hollywood naturally captured the hearts of all in Hollywood, even if the rest of us didn't quite catch the bug. It should easily take the top prize, as the most nominated film this year.
If there's an upset, it will be from either Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight, two other awards darlings this season. I'd give slightly higher odds to Moonlight as it's mostly a feel-good movie, while Manchester makes the viewer want to crawl in a hole and die.
What should win: Hacksaw Ridge
I certainly believe the best movie of the year was not nominated here. But knowing that it was a pretty weak year for movies (TV was where it was at in 2016), I was always pleasantly surprised when I saw a movie that actually had something meaningful to say. I think the true story in Hacksaw Ridge was the most moving of all the stories in this category. Part inspirational morality tale, part bloody WWII epic, the film had a variety of different themes, without losing track of the main character's pursuit for peace. It's more deserving than any fictional musical.
And I love that Arrival, a science fiction film about aliens landing, is considered worthy of a seat at the table. It gets my runner-up vote.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Who will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
If Chazelle wins, he will be the youngest ever winner in this category. If Jenkins wins, he'll be the first ever black person to win in this category. And so it is that the race is between those two men. While a win for Jenkins, and a Picture/Director split between two different films, isn't impossible, La La Land is simply too powerful to defeat, and Chazelle should triumph come the big night.
Villeneuve's nomination is significant as science fiction films almost never get nominated here, no matter how well-made they are.
Who should win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
My vote goes to Jenkins, for turning an idea for a movie no one would want to see, and making it relatable and heart-wrenching. Having the main character age, but played by three different actors, makes the film feel like Boyhood with an actual script.
Kudos to Gibson for his grand war movie, but he's already won in this category.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Who will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
This will be one of the few times in which La La Land's power begins to weaken. Gosling is, surprisingly, not the favorite to win. While it's possible he will upset, the race is really between Affleck and Washington, for two performances of two tortured souls in an unkind world. Affleck was the early favorite, but support is now rising for Washington, one of our greatest living screen actors. However, I suspect the early favorite will ultimately prevail, as this will be one of the few opportunities to honor Manchester.
Who should win: Denzel Washington, Fences
I pick Washington because his performance really surprised me. Denzel is a really likable guy, and you can't help but like his talkative charmer at the beginning of the movie. But by the end (no spoilers here), you hate the bastard, while at the same time you understand his every move. That's a feat only the best actors can handle, and he does it gracefully.
Kudos to Affleck- the mumblemouth finally became a respected actor! And to Garfield, who will win an Oscar someday, once Hollywood forgets he used to be Spider-Man.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Being a musical, La La Land will have better luck in this category, as Stone is poised to win her first Oscar. I wouldn't forget the possibility of an upset from either Portman or Streep, both nominated for playing real people. In another year, Negga might be the front-runner, but she's too unknown to win against these marquee-name actresses.
Who should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Playing a real person, especially someone so well-known, is one of the most difficult challenges for any actor. Portman taking on the role of Jackie Kennedy, at the time in her life when the eyes of the entire world were upon her, was a daunting task, but she pulls it off beautifully.
And Streep, as always, is sublime, even when you're laughing at her.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ali is really a shoo-in here, surprising considering he was mostly known as a TV character actor before this year. But his performance as a drug dealer with a heart of gold is irresistible. If there's an upset, it will come from Bridges as a grizzled Texas sheriff.
Who should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
My vote also goes to Ali, an actor I've watched for many years and am happy to see him finally breaking big. Patel is also an actor I admire, but Lion is the wrong movie for him to win- his character is too moody and unkind. Hedges was good as the angry and horny teenager dealing with the death of his father, but his nomination was a surprise, so that's a victory in itself.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Who will win: Viola Davis, Fences
This category is very difficult to predict, even though Davis appears to be the front-runner. In my mind, though, Fences isn't a beloved film and seems unlikely to win much of anything. I think an upset is likely, but I can't tell if it would come from Harris, Spencer, or Williams. (Sorry, Nicole Kidman!) Being unable to decide, I'll go with what the experts say is the obvious choice: Davis' role as the long-suffering housewife.
Who should win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Another thankless role for a Moonlight actor: Harris' single mother is a drug addict and emotionally abusive to her withdrawn son. But you can't take your eyes off her in every scene she's in. She gets my vote for making you hate her and love her, sometimes even in the same scene.
Kudos also to Spencer for bringing her consistently great work to the crowd-pleaser that is Hidden Figures.
Best Original Screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
What will win: Manchester by the Sea
Maybe it's foolish to bet against La La Land. But I'm thinking that a musical won't win for writing, it's more likely to win both of the music awards. Beyond that, Manchester is the clear choice: a highly emotional movie with well-drawn characters and a clear sense of place. (It's right there in the title, after all.)
What should win: The Lobster
I prefer the "original" part in Original Screenplay. The Lobster is a fantasy-drama that feels relevant in our world and the way we think about relationships, and its bizarre concept (people get turned into animals if they're not in a committed relationship) is what gets head turning.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
What will win: Moonlight
I'd say this category is between Fences and Moonlight, both stories about African-Americans struggling in society. While Fences the play won a Tony and a Pulitzer, which makes it an easy candidate to win an Oscar, I'm giving Moonlight the edge as it's the more beloved film.
What should win: Arrival
I have problems with the scripts for Hidden Figures and Lion, as much as I enjoyed those films. Fences felt too much like a play that wasn't properly adapted for the screen. Moonlight is a lovely film with a clever concept to move the story along. But I'm a sucker for good science fiction, and Arrival is great science fiction. It takes a concept ignored by every single episode of Star Trek, and made it central to the story- if humans ever did make contact with aliens, we would at first be unable to communicate with them. The struggle to understand a new language, and the revelation that comes with the learning, is just as riveting as a typical action-oriented alien movie.
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
What will win: Zootopia
With no Pixar film nominated this year (no love for Finding Dory), Zootopia seems to be the favorite to win. Disney's other film, Moana, could upset, or less likely, the stop-motion flick Kubo. But the talking-animals movie, with a clever metaphor for racial relations, is the most successful, and thus will end up at the top of the food chain.
What should win: Moana
While I like Zootopia, I thought Moana was the stronger film. The emotions were more raw, the female heroine more well-rounded as a character, and the animation was just better. Plus, Dwayne Johnson as Maui. Come on!
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
What will win: The Salesman
Iranian film The Salesman, by beloved director Asghar Farhadi, is the clear favorite to win this category. If there's an upset, it will come from German comedy Toni Erdmann, which is already getting an English-language remake here in the States.
What should win: ??
I haven't seen any films in this category.
Best Documentary Feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
What will win: O.J.: Made in America
This category is a little difficult to predict. Usually they go for feel-good over socially relevant documentaries; in that case, Life, Animated is the clear winner. The story of an autistic boy who uses animated Disney movies to come out of his shell and understand the world around him is wonderful and tugs on the heart-strings. Meanwhile, there are three- three!- movies here about black peoples' struggles in America, a very timely topic. While I would think Ava DuVernay's 13th (about the over-incarceration of African-Americans) would be the film to beat, O.J. seems to be the favorite. This is surprising since Made in America isn't even a true movie- it's a TV miniseries! (It aired on ESPN, don't you know.) Despite its small-screen roots, this is now known as the definitive documentary on the murder trial of the century.
What should win: Life, Animated
I loved O.J.: Made in America, and the way it was just as much about Los Angeles as it was about O.J. Simpson, but I believe it's inappropriate to honor a TV miniseries with an Oscar. It deserves an Emmy. Meanwhile, Life, Animated will touch the heart of anyone who grew up with Disney movies.
Best Original Song
"The Empty Chair", Jim: The James Foley Story
"City of Stars", La La Land
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
"How Far I'll Go", Moana
"Can't Stop the Feeling!", Trolls
What will win: "City of Stars", La La Land
If "How Far I'll Go" wins, Lin-Manuel Miranda (the genius behind Broadway's Hamilton) will become the youngest EGOT winner in history. (For the uninitiated, that's someone who wins an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony.) As exciting as that would be, you can't beat La La Land at its own game. And of its two nominated songs, the earworm "City of Stars" is clearly the favorite.
Can we stop and appreciate that Justin Timberlake is now an Oscar nominee?
What should win: "How Far I'll Go", Moana
Now, I actually like "City of Stars". I like "Can't Stop the Feeling!" too, but that doesn't mean it's going to win. "How Far I'll Go" is the emotional peak of Moana's story, and the loveliest song of the five nominees. The Sting song "The Empty Chair" is also lovely, but it's not very well-known.
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
What will win: La La Land
The musical will win here easily. If there's an upset it will be from Moonlight, but I don't think an upset is likely.
How weird that a movie as poorly-reviewed as Passengers ends up getting nominated for not one, but two Oscars!
What should win: Moonlight
La La Land's non-singing music is lovely, but the music in Moonlight is altogether unexpected, and yet perfectly sums up the inner life of the film's main character.
Kudos also to the lovely music for Jackie.
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
What will win: La La Land
This category doesn't always go hand in hand with the Best Picture winner, but this year I'm thinking La La Land will walk away with a lot of awards. An upset could come from anywhere, but I'll guess Arrival.
What should win: Arrival
While I wanted to choose Moonlight for its deliberate pace and time-jumping, I can't deny all the emotions I had watching Arrival: anticipation before seeing the aliens, eagerness and impatience to understand them, then impending dread as the humans get closer and closer to world war. All that was accomplished through the editing, and that's why it gets my vote.
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
What will win: La La Land
Another shoo-in for the win. Switching between intimate moments between its two leads, and large ensemble musical numbers, the camerawork in La La Land is a large part of making the film feel both epic and small, old-fashioned and modern at the same time. Once again, if there's an upset, it should come from Arrival.
What should win: Arrival
Yeah yeah, I know, the sci-fi geek loves his alien movie. But Arrival's camerawork was grand and often mysterious. Kudos also to Moonlight for its many long tracking shots.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
What will win: Star Trek Beyond
With no real competition, the sci-fi flick with a ton of aliens should win easily. Suicide Squad isn't likely to stage an upset as that film wasn't well-received, by anyone. Also, the 2009 Star Trek reboot won in this category.
What should win: Star Trek Beyond
I second the Academy on its inevitable decision, and I hope they continue to honor more blockbusters in the future.
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
What will win: La La Land
Conventional wisdom regarding this category tells us that either Florence Foster Jenkins or Jackie will win here, as they tend to prefer big, period-piece costumes. But La La Land is a juggernaut, and its charming formalwear should win the night.
What should win: Jackie
I prefer historical accuracy in my costumes, and Jackie recreates possibly the most famous outfit in American history: Jackie Kennedy's pink suit that she was wearing when her husband was killed. The film deserves the Oscar just for that.
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
What will win: La La Land
Turning Los Angeles into a dreamworld straight out of a Hollywood movie is too much for actual Hollywood to bear. This one will win...
What should win: La La Land
...and yeah, it deserves it. Just look at any of the fantasy sequences: the transition from real to imaginary is (usually) seamless, the homages to An American in Paris and Singin' in the Rain are spot-on, and it's all very lovely to look at.
Kudos also to Arrival for creating the aliens and spaceships, and for Fantastic Beasts for building on the Harry Potter universe elegantly.
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One
What will win: Rogue One
While Doctor Strange and The Jungle Book each had head-turning visual effects, the Star Wars spin-off has one thing they do not: CGI Tarkin. Creating a digital Peter Cushing, over 20 years after the actor's death, was the most talked-about part of the whole film, and continues the tradition of the Star Wars franchise by advancing the field of visual effects ahead many years.
It should be noted that Kubo's nomination in this category is something special: animated films never get nominated here! But the film's stunning stop-motion effects were enough to grant the film a nod.
What should win: Doctor Strange
I had some quibbles about the CGI Tarkin. And while the talking animals in Jungle Book were impressive, the magical effects in Doctor Strange were like the best parts of Inception on acid: a kaleidoscopic version of New York City, a living cloak, and a giant cloud-demon. It deserves to be the first Marvel Studios film to win an Oscar.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
13 Hours
What will win: La La Land
This category has a history of favoring musicals, so La La Land will easily win here. An upset would probably come from Hacksaw Ridge, for its battle scenes.
What should win: Rogue One
You just can't beat Star Wars when it comes to sound effects. Arrival is deserving, but come on, in the battle of the alien movies, Star Wars will always win.
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
What will win: La La Land
While this category typically goes for the more technical films (in which case, Arrival would probably be the winner), I'm betting on La La Land to take this one as well, pulling off a double win for sound.
What should win: Arrival
Without Rogue One in the running, my vote for this category goes to the other alien movie.
Best Live Action Short
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
What will win: Ennemis Interieurs
For this one, I'm going with what the experts say.
And no, that's not Sing, the animated movie with the singing pigs- it's Sing, the short film from Hungary.
What should win: ??
I got nothin'.
Best Animated Short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
What will win: Pearl
An educated guess.
What should win: Piper
Piper is the Pixar short that ran theatrically with Finding Dory, about a baby bird living on the beach, terrified of the waves. While their big-budget sequel failed to get any Oscar nominations, I'd still like to see the studio walk away with a golden boy.
Best Documentary Short
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
What will win: Joe's Violin
This category tends to go for feel-good, like its Documentary Feature counterpart. Joe's Violin is the only one that fits the bill. If they go for serious, The White Helmets, the Netflix film about volunteers rescuing victims from the rubble in Syria, will take it.
What should win: ??
I haven't seen enough of the nominees.
Well, that's it. What do you think? Not enough La La Land? For those keeping count, I've predicted it to win 11 awards, which will tie the current record.
We'll see if I'm right this Sunday night! Thanks for reading!
