Greetings avid moviegoers!
Better late than never with my predictions. In my personal opinion, it was a fairly weak year for movies...until Oscar season came around and I started surrounding myself with all the nominees. I quickly realized that my vision was a bit too narrow- just because a movie came out in the summer and made millions of dollars didn't mean that that film is representative of the whole year.
With that newfound optimism I've found in last year's crop of films, let's dive in!
As always, I include my predictions for who I think will win, as well as my personal opinions on who should win, for whoever cares to read them.
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
So this is a tough one. The race is practically a dead tie between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards...but I would swear that Dunkirk is in third place. And Lady Bird has a lot of support, too. Come to think of it, Get Out could pull off an upset win. This Oscar race has been so all over the place it will be truly impossible to predict the winner until the moment the envelope is opened...and even then, we may not know for sure.
I've picked Three Billboards for several reasons: it won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for Best Cast. It touches on several important topics (prejudice, police brutality, justice vs. revenge) but resists being a "message movie". It's funny as all hell. But ultimately I think that the Academy just won't vote for a human-fish monster romance movie as Best Picture of the year. Three Billboards' lack of a Best Director nomination hurts its chances, but if the last ten years or so are an indication, that's no longer a deal-breaker.
Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread's presences in this list are head-scratchers.
What should win: Wonder Woman
Oh, it's not nominated? In that case...
What should win: Dunkirk
Also a difficult choice, even if an ultimately pointless one. While I loved Three Billboards and was charmed by Lady Bird, while I recognize how important a movie The Post is, and while I think Get Out was one of the best, most original movies in decades, I have to go with Christopher Nolan's WWII drama for the feeling it gave me when I was sitting in the theatre. Dunkirk is comparable to Saving Private Ryan is that it so effectively portrays war on screen that it makes the viewer feel like they are on the battlefield (or in this case, the beach) with the soldiers. It doesn't have the hard-R gore that Ryan has, but it makes up for it in abundance with suspense. A true masterpiece from the most talented filmmaker working today.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
However the Best Picture race turns out, del Toro will probably win for his fantasy/romance story of a mute woman who falls in love with a South American river creature- and for somehow making it not creepy. Upsets could come from Nolan or Peele (heck, even Gerwig has a shot!), but most likely those directors will have to win another day.
Who should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
I almost chose Jordan Peele since I selected Dunkirk to win Best Picture, but I simply can't ignore the magnitude of what Nolan has accomplished. With big-budget money and a big studio backing him, he made an intense art film with little entertainment value and an unknown actor playing the lead. War movies have never been done quite like this before.
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
This one is easy. Oldman has had this one all wrapped up for months. His portrayal of Winston Churchill is both uncanny and unrecognizable- he simply becomes the character. If an upset happens, it will come from Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, his last role before retiring. But an upset won't happen.
Who should win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
And yeah, he totally deserves it. He acted his ass off in that movie. Both hilarious and inspiring, he makes you forget you're watching an actor at all.
Shout-outs to Daniel Kaluuya on his surprise nomination (a win in itself) and Denzel Washington, who is so much better than anything else in that boring film he's nominated in.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Who will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Similarly to Best Actor, this award has been decided on months in advance. McDormand will win her second Oscar for playing a pissed-off mother looking for revenge for her murdered daughter. (The movie's a dark comedy, I swear!) Possible upset could come from Sally Hawkins for playing a mute, or from Ronan for playing an angsty teenager (with a perfect American accent).
Who should win: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
I tend to prefer actors who portray real people. And while Meryl Streep was amazing as Katharine Graham, she's always amazing. I was surprised by Robbie's performance as Tonya Harding- both hilarious and vulnerable, both victim and villain. And damn, she can skate!
Saoirse Ronan is also great in Lady Bird, but she's so young I figure she'll have another shot at the award later.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another category that was chosen months in advance. Rockwell will win for his comic performance as a bumbling, racist cop in small-town Missouri. Some controversy surrounding the character in recent weeks could lead to an upset win, my guess from Richard Jenkins as a closeted gay man in the '60s. Plummer's nomination was a real Cinderella story, and thus is its own win.
Who should win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
While The Shape of Water is primarily about the romance between a mute woman and a fish monster, it has a lovely subplot about Jenkins' character, the mute woman's best friend and next-door neighbor, a struggling artist and lonely hermit. Like the other characters in the movie, he's an outcast from society, and thus finds solace in his friends.
Shout-out to Woody Harrelson for being the heart and soul of Three Billboards, a movie seemingly full of characters without hearts.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
While this race seems pretty well decided on, I think there's a little wiggle room. While the obvious choice is Emmy favorite Allison Janney for playing Tonya Harding's abusive and foul-mouthed mother, I feel like Mary J. Blige is right behind her. Both women are unrecognizable in their roles and have the potential to be career-defining. But Janney will likely win for the more popular of the two films, and as hers is the more comedic performance.
In a different year, Laurie Metcalf would easily win as a stressed-out mother everyone can relate to.
Who should win: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
It's true, Janney plays a real person and Blige does not, but the singer made her case as a professional actress with a transformative, heart-breaking performance that stuck with me.
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Difficult to predict. I think as the eventual Best Picture winner, Three Billboards will likely win here. But then again, this category is Get Out's best chance at a win. There's also a possibility Lady Bird will upset. I guess we'll see, but my prediction stands.
What should win: Get Out
Here I can finally choose Get Out, by far the most original movie of the year. A racially-charged horror/comedy made by one-half of the comedy duo of Key & Peele? No one could have predicted this movie, or that it would be so good, or so successful.
Shout-out to The Big Sick for being a comedy disguised as a drama, and to Lady Bird for making the characters relatable even as you hate them.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
What will win: Call Me By Your Name
This one is easy. As the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, Call Me By Your Name will easily win. Mudbound could upset, but not likely.
What should win: Mudbound
My vote goes to the story of two families in the South during and after WWII and how their experiences differ even as they go through similar struggles. A tragic film, to be sure, but still a lovely one.
Shout-out to Logan, the first-ever superhero movie nominated in this category. Who would have thought the world needed an R-rated Wolverine movie?
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
What will win: Coco
Pixar still has this category wrapped around its little finger. Its latest masterpiece, Coco, will win for bringing the Mexican culture into the mainstream, and for being the most imaginative and beautiful film of the bunch.
An upset...won't happen. I won't even speculate.
What should win: Coco
Admittedly I haven't seen all the nominees. But come on. It's gotta be Coco.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
What will win: The Square
This race is between A Fantastic Woman (from Chile) and The Square (from Sweden). Fantastic Woman has the timeliness of being about a transgender woman and her struggling for acceptance, but I'm giving the edge to the Palme d'Or winner from Sweden, costarring American actress Elisabeth Moss.
What should win: ?
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to make a real decision here.
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
What will win: Faces Places
Agnes Varda just won an Honorary Oscar for an entire career making great documentaries previously ignored by the Academy. To have her latest film get nominated is the perfect opportunity to honor her again. An upset could come from the Netflix film Strong Island, about the senseless killing of a black man and the injustice that followed.
What should win: ?
I think Icarus is the best of the films I've seen, but it's not fair to compare that one to films I haven't seen.
Best Original Song
"Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me", Coco
"This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
"Stand Up For Something", Marshall
"Mighty River", Mudbound
What will win: "This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
You heard it in the trailer, you danced to it watching the movie, then you heard it again in TV commercials. The self-empowerment ballad "This Is Me" is the happiest and catchiest song of the bunch, and should walk away victorious.
Its chances are hurt a bit by it being the film's only nomination. If there's an upset it will probably come from "Remember Me", since that song is central to Coco's plot.
What should win: "This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
Yeah, it deserves it. My second-favorite: "Mighty River", sung by the film's own Mary J. Blige.
Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: The Shape of Water
The lovely French-inspired music of The Shape of Water should win here, although I think Dunkirk's music (tick-tick-tick) is more memorable and thus could end up on top if Shape of Water doesn't sweep the technical categories.
What should win: Dunkirk
It's hard to vote against Star Wars- or John Williams!- but the maddeningly suspenseful Dunkirk is so maddeningly suspenseful in large part because of its extremely tense score.
However, The Shape of Water does have the most beautiful music of the bunch.
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Dunkirk
Even if The Shape of Water wins double-digit Oscars and Three Billboards wins Best Picture, it's hard to imagine the Academy giving the Film Editing award to anything other than Dunkirk. Shuttling between three different stories going at three different rates and making it all cohesive was a magic trick the film pulled off splendidly.
What should win: Dunkirk
The suspense of Dunkirk was also due in large part to its editing style, and thus gets my vote.
Shout-out to Baby Driver, which is basically an editing experiment with a movie built around it.
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
What will win: The Shape of Water
Another opportunity to honor Guillermo del Toro's beautiful film. Dunkirk could win too, but I'm guessing Shape of Water will be very successful in the technical categories. Blade Runner got in on raw talent, but a science fiction film won't win here. (Is Shape of Water sci-fi? Feels more like fantasy.)
What should win: Dunkirk
So yeah, I'm admittedly a Nolan fanboy. But you can't deny that he put an IMAX camera in the tiny cockpit of a fighter plane and somehow made it work instead of making it awkward.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
What will win: Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman's transformation into Winston Churchill wasn't acting alone. A fat suit and facial prosthetics helped turn the handsome British actor into one of the greatest leaders the world has ever known, and the Academy will recognize it.
What should win: Darkest Hour
How the hell did The Shape of Water not get nominated here? They literally made a fish monster- and the movie was about the fish monster! In lieu of its nomination, I also choose Darkest Hour.
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
What will win: Phantom Thread
While Beauty and the Beast has pretty yellow dresses and Victoria & Abdul has beautiful garments fit for royalty, Phantom Thread is literally about the world's best dressmaker. This is the film's best chance at a win.
What should win: Phantom Thread
For once, I agree with the choice in this category. If the dresses in the film were anything less than extraordinary, the film would simply not work. Well, the film ultimately doesn't work all that well, but the dresses are extraordinary.
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
What will win: The Shape of Water
I'm predicting Shape of Water will do very well in these categories. The Academy may just give the film a green Oscar! (Did you see Shape of Water? Then you must have seen all the green. So. Much. Green.)
What should win: Blade Runner 2049
I choose Blade Runner for its stunning visuals of a bleak future.
Shout-out to Darkest Hour for a perfect re-creation of time and place (London, 1940).
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
War For the Planet of the Apes
What will win: War For the Planet of the Apes
The first two Apes films in the prequel trilogy were nominated here but did not win. I say, third time's the charm for the motion-capture extravaganza.
Blade Runner could upset for its stunning and startling visuals. That gonzo sex scene could win the award on its own!
What should win: Blade Runner 2049
Again, it's difficult to vote against Star Wars- after all, it also has an Andy Serkis motion-capture performance! But I can't deny the CGI in Blade Runner is a cut above anything else mainstream Hollywood is doing.
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
What will win: Dunkirk
Here's the question for the sound categories: Dunkirk or Shape of Water? While it may be foolish, my guess is that here is where Shape of Water's power over the Academy begins to fade, and they'll give it to the bigger, louder movie.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
Finally! A category where it actually makes sense for Star Wars to emerge victorious. Lightsabers, Wookie growls, Porg squawks, and that epic silent jump to lightspeed- all that is thanks to the sound mixers. And they deserve Oscar gold for it.
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
What will win: Dunkirk
Identical nominees will produce an identical winner. If Shape of Water wins for Sound Mixing, it will win here as well, but I'm still betting on Dunkirk to win both.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
My vote is the same as well. Same reasons, too- I like the lightsaber hum.
Best Live Action Short
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote (All of Us)
What will win: The Silent Child
If they go for the happiest of the shorts, then the comedy The Eleven O'Clock will win it. But The Silent Child is the one that pulls on your heartstrings the most, as it follows a young deaf girl struggling for acceptance in her own family.
DeKalb Elementary is about a school shooting, so... timeliness?
What should win: The Eleven O'Clock
While many of the shorts were great, they were so dramatic and thus I felt could have been expanded into features if the filmmakers had more money. But the short format really excels when it comes to comedy, and The Eleven O'Clock is a masterwork of witty dialogue and humorous misunderstandings.
Best Animated Short
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes- Part One
What will win: Dear Basketball
When Kobe Bryant retired, he wrote a poem that served as both a love song and a good-bye to the sport that had defined his life. Later, he recruited former Disney animator Glen Keane (he drew Ariel!) and legendary composer John Williams to turn his poem into an animated short film. The result will likely earn Kobe Bryant an Academy Award, a sentence I never thought I would write. The film's heartfelt prose and stream-of-consciousness style of animation is so moving it even earns the tears of non-basketball fans.
What should win: Lou
Yeah, I liked Dear Basketball, but Pixar still makes the best short films, and Lou is one of the most imaginative they've ever come up with, and features a sweet anti-bullying message as well.
Best Documentary Short
Edith + Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
What will win: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Difficult to predict. If they go for the most heart-warming, it will be Heaven, about a talented artist with a mental handicap. If they go for the most socially relevant, it will be Traffic Stop, but that HBO film relies heavily on archive footage as opposed to original footage shot by the filmmakers. Thus I think Heaven will win.
What should win: Heroin(e)
The Netflix documentary is about three women in West Virginia who have each dedicated their lives to improving their community, specifically to stopping the heroin epidemic that grips their town. By showing both the ugly side of the town and the strong few who have managed to quit and turn their lives around, we grow to admire these three women in just a few minutes of screen time.
I also liked Knife Skills, about a restaurant that exclusively hires people fresh out of prison, giving them a second chance at life.
That's it! We'll find out how well I did when the Oscars air tomorrow night on ABC.
