I'm back! Since I'm paying closer attention than usual to this year's Oscar race, I decided to bring back nominations predictions for this year! Let's see how I do!
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
For those paying attention, you know that predicting the Best Picture category these days is doubly difficult because you're not only guessing at the actual films, but the actual number of nominees. Due to Academy rules, anywhere between 5-10 films will receive Best Picture nominations- but since the rule went into effect, we've only ever gotten 8 or 9 at a time.
I've guessed 8, and here they are. The sure things are A Star Is Born, Roma, Vice, The Favourite, and Green Book (which has established itself as the front-runner this year; but that's a discussion for another day). BlackKklansman was an early favorite, but still has enough support to make it in. The Golden Globes taught us not to underestimate Bohemian Rhapsody. And who could have seen Black Panther coming?! A Marvel superhero movie being nominated for the highest honor in Hollywood? It seems impossible, but the film has become such a cultural touchstone that it's everywhere right now. I predict it will do what The Dark Knight and Wonder Woman before it couldn't accomplish: receive a nomination for Best Picture.
If I'm wrong, the list will include one or more of the following films: Crazy Rich Asians, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place.
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice
I'm pretty confident about these five, although it seems like a long shot that the director of Dumb and Dumber will get an Oscar nomination- but Peter Farrelly has wowed critics and audiences alike with his latest crowd-pleaser.
Yorgos Lanthimos may get nominated for The Favourite, but I suspect that film's support is falling a little bit.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen are all sure bets here. The last spot, I'm predicting will go to the lead in BlackKklansman (he's Denzel Washington's son!), but if I'm wrong, then Robert Redford will get a nomination for his final (for now) screen performance in The Old Man & the Gun.
Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Although Mary Poppins Returns may have lost steam since its opening (this sequel is good, but nowhere near as sensational as the original film), Emily Blunt is being universally praised for her performance in the title role. She, Close, Colman, and Gaga are shoo-ins. Again, that last spot is difficult to predict. Elsie Fisher is wonderful in Eighth Grade, but the consensus seems to be that she's young, she'll have plenty of chances later. Melissa McCarthy is earning rave reviews for her dramatic role in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but I think Nicole Kidman has the Oscar bona fides to get a nomination for her very unglamorous role in Destroyer.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Ali, Driver, and Elliott are the sure bets. Beautiful Boy opened to mixed reviews, largely dashing its Oscar hopes, but the young Chalamet's performance is still being recognized. The final slot may be filled by Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but I'm putting my money on last year's winner Sam Rockwell, for his funny and spot-on performance as George W. Bush.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Adams, King, Stone, and Weisz are the sure bets. (My early money is on Regina King to win.) I feel like A Quiet Place has lost steam since opening in the spring, but Emily Blunt is the new It Girl and may still score a nomination. (She's really the lead of the film, but they're campaigning for her in Supporting here so she can get a lead nomination for Mary Poppins Returns, scoring that ever-elusive double nomination.)
If I'm wrong, other possible contenders are Claire Foy for First Man and Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots.
Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Green Book, Roma (despite it being in Spanish), and Vice are the easy bets. I figure The Favourite will get nominated to support its other categories. And since Eighth Grade is such a small film, I figure this is its best shot at a nod.
Other popular films that could wind up here are First Reformed and A Quiet Place. Both deserve nominations, but may not have the support necessary to secure one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Another category where I'm pretty confident of my predictions.
Can we take a moment to appreciate once again that a Marvel movie could get a writing Oscar nomination?!
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
A notoriously difficult category to predict, since the Academy likes to mix big studio films with foreign films and little-heard-of indies. But, figured I'd take a stab at it. You got the requisite Disney flick (Ralph), the requisite Pixar flick (Incredibles 2), and Wes Anderson's latest stop-motion effort (Isle of Dogs, which may get nominated despite some controversy). Mirai is a critically-acclaimed Japanese anime, and I figured it's got a better shot than The Grinch. Spider-Man is the early favorite to win... maybe because of its quality, maybe because of its limp competition.
That's all the categories I can reasonably predict! Beyond this, I predict that A Star Is Born and Mary Poppins Returns will get nominated for Best Original Song, A Quiet Place will get nominated for Best Sound Mixing, Pixar's Bao will get nominated for Best Animated Short, and that the Best Visual Effects category will be full of blockbusters.
See how I did! The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 22nd.
