Predicting the Oscars can be tricky. Sometimes it's easy, but the beauty of the Academy is that it can surprise you at the oddest times. When it comes to Best Picture, the Academy has been extremely unpredictable the last five years or so.
After
The Dark Knight failed to nab a Best Picture nomination in 2009, public opinion was so strong that the Academy changed its rules- the first time it did so since your grandparents were your age. For two years, there were
ten nominees for Best Picture, even though only one film won, like always. This led to even more disapproval from critics and members alike- films were being nominated that didn't deserve it! (See:
An Education,
A Serious Man,
Winter's Bone, even
The Blind Side.) But the flip side of the coin is that films like
Up and
Toy Story 3- critically and publicly loved films that normally wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell- were getting nominated. But the experiment seemed to be a failed one. For this year's ceremony the Academy has changed their rules again- this time, there will be anywhere between five and ten nominees, with one winner like always. This way there can be more worthy films nominated, but without a strict number to stick to, they can "trim the fat," if you will.
Only time will tell if this tactic will work. In the meantime the Academy has created the most difficult scenario possible to predict its nominations- not only do you have to guess
what films will be nominated, you have to guess
how many as well!
We all know I'm never gonna get it right, so in that spirit, let's jump right in!
*Keep in mind these are what I think
will get nominated, not what I think
should be nominated. The Academy and I differ in our tastes for film. Also I don't predict the winners until I have the actual nominees in front of me.*
Best Picture (8 nominees)
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternate: Midnight in Paris
Seven nominees sounds like a nice round number, but I chose eight because
it's so freaking hard to choose! So maybe they will have just as hard a time. The competition seems to be between two films, the silent movie
The Artist and the drama
The Descendants.
The Help and
Hugo are also critically beloved and are solid secondary films.
Moneyball and
War Horse had Oscar bait written all over them when they came out, but haven't been keeping up the pace they should. They will probably still get in, but they're mostly filler here.
Dragon Tattoo is also being overlooked by some people, but after being recognized by almost all the guild awards, the Academy should come around.
Bridesmaids is definitely the dark horse on my list, but after the critical Producers Guild nomination, the film is hard to ignore. You also can't forget the fact that it's one of the best-reviewed films of the year, created multiple headlines about how women have
finally proved they're funny, and is one of the most talked-about comedies in the last decade.
My alternate is
Midnight in Paris because, while the Academy does love Woody Allen, it's been many years since he's had a Best Picture nominee, and this film isn't exactly a revelation among his work.
And lastly, while we'd all love to see
Harry Potter be nominated here, it's been ignored by practically every pre-Oscar award, and it came out in the summer, slimming down its chances from slim to practically none.
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Alternate: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
With more than five Best Picture nominees, it makes sense that the Director nominees would all be Picture nominees as well. In that case, Allen is the only candidate who sticks out on my list, but in a normal year, it's not uncommon to see someone nominated here who's not on the Best Picture list. They may want to reward Allen for the biggest hit of his career. Otherwise, Hazanavicius and Payne are shoo-ins, as is Scorsese, for making his first kid-friendly movie. While
War Horse isn't generating the kind of love it should, the Academy never misses a chance to nominate Spielberg here.
My alternate is Fincher for one of the darkest movies of the year. He got the Directors Guild nomination, so he stands a decent chance here, even though his film is slipping steadily from voters' minds.
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
While Clooney and Dujardin are the shoo-ins here (and the award will inevitably go to one of them), the rest are difficult to predict. Pitt's performance in
Moneyball is said to be a career-best, so even if the film is forgotten for Best Picture, he should be remembered here. Fassbender bared it all (literally) and capped off a stellar year with the movie
Shame, in which his performance is actually better than the movie itself. He also can say that he is the reason the film is rated NC-17. Gosling had two Oscar-worthy performances this year, in
The Ides of March and
Drive. While it's possible he may split his own vote because of this, I choose the former film because he actually
speaks in that movie.
Lastly, DiCaprio's decades-spanning performance in
J. Edgar is truly wonderful, but the film was not warmly received, so he will probably be forgotten.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Alternate: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
This film has four shoo-ins (four!) and only one spot which was difficult. Close turns in a career-best performance as a woman pretending to be a man to get work in
Albert Nobbs. (Think of it as a humorless
Mrs. Doubtfire, and as a period piece set in Ireland.) Streep can't get in front of a camera without getting nominated, but her humbleness means they never tire of doing so. Plus her performance as Margaret Thatcher was totally convincing. Michelle Williams was the best thing about her movie, as the sexy but troubled Marilyn Monroe. And no one can forget Davis as a maid holding onto her dignity in
The Help.
That fifth slot is tricky. I choose the most talked-about performance of the year, in which a pretty little thing transformed herself into a vicious, ugly little thing. Mara as Lisbeth Salander was what millions of readers the world over were expecting, and more- she was truly terrifying, and yet sympathetic and believable.
Young Adult isn't generating much buzz, but Theron's hilarious performance as a prom queen all grown up definitely stays in people's minds.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Alternate: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Not a whole lot of contenders for this category, it seems. Plummer will ultimately win the award for his sweet and hilarious turn as an 80-year-old widower who finally comes out of the closet. The rest of the nominees are just filler. Branagh is said to be grand as Laurence Olivier, Brooks was memorably cruel as a gangster in
Drive (an against-type performance for him), and Hill is surprising in one of his first dramatic roles, as a math whiz in
Moneyball. Nolte is really my hopeful choice here;
Warrior, while it's a great film, isn't attracting a lot of attention in award season, but his performance as an ex-alcoholic father trying to hang on to his separated sons is heartbreaking.
The movie
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, based on the popular avant-garde book, isn't wooing critics like it should be, so Von Sydow might just earn the film's only nomination as a mute man who aids a young boy in his quest for answers.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alternate: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
This is always an interesting category. Bejo and Spencer are shoo-ins here, being the most memorable parts of their movies. Nominating two different actresses for the same movie is actually a common practice here, so Chastain should also get nominated, not only for her funny but shocking turn as a naive housewife, but also for her great debut year. Woodley has an uphill battle ahead of her because of her young age, but the film is bound to get recognized in the Best Picture category, so it would be a crime to forget her here.
But of course, McCarthy is the one everyone will be talking about. Comedic roles do sometimes get recognized in the supporting categories, even weird ones (think Robert Downey, Jr. in
Tropic Thunder). Since she is by far the best part of the best comedy of the year, she would be a major omission if the Academy were to forget her.
And McTeer is being recognized in other places, but since
Albert Nobbs isn't picking up much steam (it looks really boring), she will probably be forgotten, and Glenn Close may be the film's only nomination.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Alternate: War Horse
The Descendants will probably end up winning here, even if it doesn't win Best Picture.
The Help and
Hugo were both splendidly adapted from beloved books, but don't feel like adaptations.
Moneyball could have potentially been a very boring movie, but with the help of Oscar winner Aaron Sorkin, they made it pop. And, maybe I'm overestimating
Dragon Tattoo's chances. But it got a Writers Guild nomination and also expertly adapted a complex (and slow-moving) book into an interesting and fast-paced thriller, and features one of the best fictional characters of the year, in Lisbeth Salander.
War Horse was adapted from a well-liked play, and while a nomination here would make sense to go along with a Best Picture nomination, the film really isn't getting that much enthusiasm, so it's bound to get left behind somewhere.
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Alternate: Young Adult
The Artist will definitely win here, even though the film features practically zero dialogue. Woody Allen's scripts frequently get nominated here, so
Midnight in Paris should definitely get recognized, even if it's forgotten elsewhere. Ditto for
Bridesmaids, where this category is actually where it has the best chance.
A Separation is a critically-acclaimed Iranian film about a couple attempting to get a divorce. Its nomination here would cement its win for Best Foreign Language Film. And while
50/50 isn't a typical Oscar movie, other awards are recognizing how unique it is, in bringing the idea of a young person getting cancer into a comedy. The film has a pretty good shot at being recognized here.
And
Young Adult was written by the Oscar-winning writer of
Juno, Diablo Cody, so this script has Oscar bait all over it. But the film isn't
that funny, so it'll probably be left behind.
Best Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tintin
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Alternate: Arthur Christmas
If I may say so myself, 2011 was a weak year for animation. Without any major box-office successes, the Academy has to make do with some critically-acclaimed films...and one token nomination for a huge disappointment.
As Steven Spielberg's first animated film,
Tintin should easily score a nomination here, as should
Rango, a critically-acclaimed film that disappointed at the box office. The predecessors of
Kung Fu Panda 2 and
Puss in Boots were nominated in the past (
Puss is a spin-off of
Shrek, a film that won this award ten years ago), and these entries were at least better than
Happy Feet Two. And even though
Cars 2 was awful, Pixar always gets nominated, and the Academy often can't tell the difference between a good film and a well-made film.
While Christmas movies tend to not get nominated,
Arthur Christmas still turned out to be one of the best animated films of the year, so if one of these is wrong (I'm thinking
Puss in Boots), this one will swoop in and grab it.
The Academy Award nominations will be announced in the early morning hours on Tuesday, January 24th, and the ceremony itself will be the night of February 26th, on ABC. Get excited!
Friday, February 3rd
