Well, we come to it at last, ladies and gents! I've made my predictions for who will win, and it wasn't easy. So many beloved and critically-acclaimed films are up for awards this year that the night really could go anyone's way. The general rule of thumb with the Oscars is, expect the unexpected.
That doesn't work for predicting the winners though, so I've made some concrete picks, which you can find below.
As always, I've included what I think will win, and my personal opinion of what I think should win, for those who care about such things.
Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
What will win: Roma
I don't make this prediction lightly. A win for Roma would be the first foreign-language film to win Best Picture at the Oscars- and this is the 91st year! But it makes sense to me. The early favorite (ironically, not The Favourite) was A Star Is Born, but that film's fall release seems to be working against it. The next favorite (nope, still not that one) was Green Book, but that film has been stewing in some awkward controversy on the publicity circuit. It's a movie about racism, guys, talk about it with a little tact! Also, both of those films failed to garner a Best Director nomination, which makes a win here highly unlikely. I'd like to pick Black Panther, but that's just wishful thinking.
Roma is both the most critically-acclaimed, and the most beloved film of the year. (By the industry, not necessarily by American audiences.) But its Netflix distribution model is working hard for it- anyone can see the movie, there's no excuses for missing it. While I'm nervous about my choice, I believe the little movie by the big director is the one to beat.
What should win: Black Panther
It'll never happen in a million years, but if I could choose, I would pick the most thought-provoking (and badass!) superhero movie in years. Marvel Studios is a game-changer in Hollywood, but despite its billions of dollars and millions of fans, it has yet to win an Oscar in any category. This would be the best consolation prize ever.
I also really enjoyed BlacKkKlansman, but its competition is fierce.
Best Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Cuarón is the clear choice here. A past winner who turned in a deeply personal film (he claims it's auto-biographical, based on his own childhood caretaker) that somehow manages to feel both huge and tiny depending on the scene. It's also great to have a film these days centered on a person that most of society does not bother to think about.
Spike Lee got his first Director nomination here, but sadly, this is not his year.
Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
I almost voted for Spike Lee, but Cuarón's film is a singularly unique vision. (The same could be said for The Favourite, but that film just made me laugh, while Roma made me cry.) I'm a fan of Adam McKay too, but this is not his year.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Who will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
This race is super-close between Christian Bale and Rami Malek. Bale is the traditional choice, with the past Oscar win (for Supporting), his total transformation and dedication to playing the real-life person Dick Cheney, and his bravery for gaining weight and playing a deeply unlikable person. But Malek's performance as Freddie Mercury really surprised audiences. It was really good, and fun to watch- mostly because it looks like he's having so much fun! Bale gives the better performance, but the mood of watching the supremely talented Malek play the supremely talented Queen frontman is going to win him the Oscar. (Sorry, Bradley...)
Who should win: Christian Bale, Vice
Batman plays Dick Cheney... what else do I have to say? Bale is unrecognizable as the former Vice President (even nailing his breathing!) and has proved once again he's one of the best actors working in Hollywood. He deserves this, in my humble opinion.
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who will win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Glenn Close is probably the favorite to win- this is her seventh nomination in a career spanning back decades. She gives a startling and remarkable performance as a jilted wife to a genius writer, and has been inspiring people with her acceptance speeches all season.
Hot on her heels is Lady Gaga, a pop star who, with her first lead role, showed the world she's a fantastic actress. The early favorite to win here, she was overshadowed later in the season by Close. An upset by Gaga is still a real possibility, though.
Olivia Colman is brilliant as Queen Anne, but comedic roles rarely win here. Yalitza Aparicio deserves credit for her screen debut (she wasn't a professional actress when she was cast!) that broke all our hearts. And in regards to Melissa McCarthy, the Academy likes to see traditionally funny actors switch to dramatic stuff (see Steve Carell's latest work). Any one of them could have won in other years, but I think it's Glenn Close's turn.
Who should win: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
With all due respect to Glenn Close... hell, with all due respect to all the nominees, they're all terrific; but Lady Gaga was phenomenal in A Star Is Born. It's actually a morbid tradition of Star Is Born movies to get nominated and not win at the Oscars, and this one will sadly carry on that pattern. But I wish it wasn't so.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
The winner here is clear: Ali has won every pre-Oscar award and is the clear front-runner as the real-life concert pianist traveling through the Deep South in the 1960s. He may have won this award just two years ago (for Moonlight), but that shouldn't stop him.
Who should win: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
My pick is for the industry veteran getting his first nomination, who gave the most emotional performance in an already powerful film.
I also thought Sam Rockwell was a hoot as George W. Bush, but he just won this award last year, and his performance leans a little on the parody side.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Who will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
King is the clear front-runner to win here. Both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were great as ladies-in-waiting trying desperately to win the Queen's affections; the only problem is, they were equally good! Thus they split the vote, allowing Regina King to win her first Oscar.
Who should win: Amy Adams, Vice
It bums me out that Adams won't win. This is her sixth nomination, but can never seem to clinch it. Her performance as Lynne Cheney (depicted as a kind of modern-day Lady Macbeth) was both funny and scary.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
What will win: The Favourite
A difficult category to predict. If I'm guessing Roma to win Best Picture, it would make sense to win here as well, but foreign films rarely win for their writing. Green Book could win for being the feel-good movie of the year, or Vice for its meticulously researched real-world political intrigue. But I think this is the major category in which The Favourite stands the best chance, as it is a truly original film. And it's damn funny to boot.
What should win: Vice
I was very impressed with how Vice took a story no one knew existed and made it accessible to anyone. Dark comedies are difficult to get right, and it works great.
I was also very impressed with First Reformed, but it would probably be more at home with an Actor nomination for Ethan Hawke.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
What will win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Another difficult category to pick. Best Picture nominees BlacKkKlansman or A Star Is Born could take it, but I feel like neither one has the support. The littler film Can You Ever Forgive Me?, a true story, is interesting enough to justify its win here. Plus it'd be great to see a woman win it.
What should win: BlacKkKlansman
I choose the stranger-than-fiction true story of the black police officer who somehow managed to infiltrate the Ku Klux Klan and saved lives by preventing an attack. Both suspenseful and funny, and painfully relevant to our times, this film is what America needs today.
I also liked Buster Scruggs, but not every sequence in the anthology film worked very well, and an anthology film is a strange choice to receive a writing Oscar nomination anyway.
Best Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars", Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go", Mary Poppins Returns
"I'll Fight", RBG
"Shallow", A Star Is Born
What will win: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
This race is between "All the Stars" and "Shallow", and while it could go either way, my bet is that Star Is Born has this in the bag. It's impossible to listen to without being transported back to the moment you first heard it in the film, when Lady Gaga's Ally embraces her destiny and belts her heart out in front of a stadium full of people.
What should win: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
And I believe it deserves it, although it's only narrowly beating out "All the Stars", the capper to Marvel's superhero flick. I also enjoyed "I'll Fight", basically Ruth Bader Ginsburg's personal power ballad.
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
What will win: BlacKkKlansman
This is BlacKkKlansman's best shot at a win, for its 70's-tinged score, perfectly matching the main character. Mary Poppins Returns is also a contender here for effortlessly weaving both old and new songs into the background music. It's got history on its side too: the original Mary Poppins won this award decades ago.
What should win: Black Panther
Many of the nominees have lovely music, but in my humble opinion, Black Panther has the best. It somehow blends traditional African music with techno and exciting action tunes, perfectly blending past with future.
Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
What will win: Vice
This category generally matches whatever wins Best Picture, but since Roma isn't nominated, it's kind of up for grabs. (I am, of course, assuming my predictions are correct. Perhaps foolishly.) Vice is the one with the most noticeable editing, since it's edited in a very specific style, which can simply be described as "Adam McKay tells this bizarre story the only way it makes sense in his mind."
What should win: Vice
Ditto for the reasons listed above. BlacKkKlansman has some effective editing tools, such as juxtaposing two very different scenes together to make a point about people's similarities. The editing for Vice just stands out more.
Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
What will win: Roma
Roma likely has this in the bag, since Alfonso Cuarón has proved once again he's the master of the film camera. (He's his own director of photography on this film.) The black and white element holds the film back a little, but probably not enough for the award to go to someone else.
What should win: A Star Is Born
I'm not sure why Roma is in black and white. If it was in color, I would have voted for it here. Instead I choose A Star Is Born, for accomplishing the difficult task of making celebrities relatable by letting us know them intimately, as only a film camera can.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
What will win: Vice
This one is easy. Christian Bale's transformation into Dick Cheney wasn't all acting- makeup helped complete the picture. For that feat alone, it will win this award. It's also the film with the most support.
What should win: Black Panther...but since it's not nominated, Vice
Ditto for above. Christian Bale into Dick Cheney, Sam Rockwell into George W. Bush, the makeup people went above and beyond for this task.
Why wasn't Black Panther nominated? Did they see that movie??
Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
What will win: The Favourite
This award generally goes to the biggest, showiest costumes, which would be either The Favourite or Mary Queen of Scots. As the more beloved of the two films, I give the edge to the former.
Of course, this category is also a major test of the support for Black Panther. It has a decent shot at a win here, although it would be unprecedented. And a win in this category could mean a domino effect which would put these predictions to shame...
What should win: Black Panther
With that in mind, I pick the African superhero movie to win here. The rare film that combines history with fantasy required unique costumes that can't be bought in a store. (But they can be glimpsed in a comic book!)
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
What will win: The Favourite
A twofer for The Favourite would make a lot of sense, for this big, splashy, fun period piece. Roma could take it, but I feel like the production design was not what made the movie great.
What should win: Black Panther
I want to give a shout-out to Mary Poppins Returns for mixing reality with fantasy (and live action and animation!) so effectively, but I can't resist choosing Black Panther again. Wakanda feels like a real place because the filmmakers brought it so vividly to life.
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
What will win: First Man
A very difficult category to predict. If we're objectively going on which film has the best effects, it's either Avengers or Ready Player One for their immersive worlds and breathtakingly realistic motion-capture performances that help advance film as an art form. But First Man is the only non-blockbuster on this list, and the Academy likes giving this award to films that aren't huge summer tentpoles, ie. films you wouldn't expect to have great CGI.
What should win: Avengers: Infinity War
I choose the other Marvel movie nominated this year. I think the visual effects for Avengers and Ready Player One are equally good, but the former is the better film.
The live-action Winnie the Pooh characters in Christopher Robin look very real, but in making them look real, the filmmakers also made them somewhat ugly. And Solo's nomination proves that every Star Wars movie, no matter how bad, has to get at least one token Oscar nomination.
Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
What will win: Roma
I pick Roma to win here for its larger scenes of Mexico City, which perfectly evoke the time and place. Music-based films do tend to win here, which would be either Bohemian Rhapsody or A Star Is Born, but I suspect those two will split the vote, allowing the favorite film of the year to sneak in and win.
What should win: First Man
With all due respect to Black Panther (its sound helped to establish the world of Wakanda and enhance the action scenes), my pick here is First Man for its viscerally real spaceflight sequences. The Gemini 8 takeoff sequence alone is worthy of an Oscar; the camera stays inside the cockpit, allowing the audience to see and hear everything Neil Armstrong experienced, moment to moment.
Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
What will win: A Quiet Place
While its sole nomination will hold it back some, it's difficult to imagine any other film but A Quiet Place winning here. How many other films are so much about sound? It could be described as a nearly silent film, but that's just for those not listening. Sound is woven so much into the storytelling that dialogue is unnecessary. The thrills- and the emotions- come through largely through what is heard.
What should win: A Quiet Place
Again, I apologize to Black Panther, which I wish could win all the awards. But A Quiet Place was one of the best movies of the year, and a win here is the least I can do to honor it.
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
What will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Typically Disney or Pixar films will win here. But both the Disney and Pixar films nominated are sequels! And the stronger of the two, Incredibles 2, is nowhere near as beloved as the original The Incredibles (which won this award years ago). Although it's a strange choice, Spider-Man is one of the best movies of the year, animated or otherwise. It's totally original, wildly visually inventive, very funny, and has a diverse cast to boot. This will become the first animated Sony film to win in this category.
What should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2 was well-made and Ralph 2 was fun, but it's Spider-Man that delivered the thrills, the laughs, and the psychedelic visuals. I groaned when I first heard there was going to be an animated Spider-Man film. Boy, was I wrong! More, please!
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
What will win: Roma
Shoplifters won the Palme d'Or, and Cold War has established itself as a force to be reckoned with, but this is still Roma's award to lose. The general consensus is that Alfonso Cuarón has made his masterpiece. The fact that the Mexican film has been on Netflix for months has certainly helped it get seen; the other films on this list are hard to find. An upset by Cold War is very possible, but I stick with my choice.
What should win: ?
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to make an informed choice.
Best Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
What will win: Free Solo
This category is a close race between Free Solo and RBG. The first person to climb El Capitan without a rope, or a feel-good biography of everyone's favorite Supreme Court justice? While many would feel the urge to vote for RBG in these politically turbulent times, Free Solo is a movie which lends itself particularly well to the big screen. (Vertigo sufferers, beware!) It's a pulse-pounding experience, even though the ending is not in question. People remember that feeling long after watching the movie, so I bet it will get the votes.
What should win: Free Solo
I'm still reeling from Won't You Be My Neighbor? getting snubbed. What do you people have against Mr. Rogers?! In leiu of that film, I pick Free Solo, although I did also enjoy RBG very much.
Best Live Action Short
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
What will win: Skin
Skin is the only English-language American film of the bunch, and thus will win. Yes, the Academy is that fickle.
What should win: ?
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to make an informed choice.
Best Animated Short
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
What will win: Bao
Typically this award doesn't go to the big studio film unless it's something special. The Pixar short Bao (it ran theatrically with Incredibles 2) is something special. It's worth noting that both Bao and One Small Step are visually stunning heartstring-tuggers about relationships between parents and children. So it's very possible One Small Step will win, but Bao has been around for months and has a much larger fan base.
What should win: Bao
How to make your audience cry in less than ten minutes: watch Bao, one of Pixar's best short films. And that's saying something coming from the studio that's made at least five short masterpieces.
Best Documentary Short
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
What will win: Period. End of Sentence.
No, it's not about grammar. This feel-good Netflix doc about women taking control of their periods, and thus their lives, is the one to beat here. The best of the "important" docs is Lifeboat, but this category typically goes for feel-good over important.
What should win: Lifeboat
I enjoyed Period, but I'm going for the important film. It's about a volunteer group who rescues refugees from the ocean. Tough to watch at times, but vitally important for those concerned with what's happening in the world. (That should be all of you.)
Ironically, A Night at the Garden, while powerful, is actually too short to be satisfying as a short documentary!
That's it, all 24 categories. We can rest assured that all the awards will be presented live instead of given away during the commercial breaks. This year's nominees are all over the place, so it's possible I got all of these wrong. We'll all find out together this Sunday, February 24th, on ABC.
See you at the movies!
I'm back! Since I'm paying closer attention than usual to this year's Oscar race, I decided to bring back nominations predictions for this year! Let's see how I do!
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
For those paying attention, you know that predicting the Best Picture category these days is doubly difficult because you're not only guessing at the actual films, but the actual number of nominees. Due to Academy rules, anywhere between 5-10 films will receive Best Picture nominations- but since the rule went into effect, we've only ever gotten 8 or 9 at a time.
I've guessed 8, and here they are. The sure things are A Star Is Born, Roma, Vice, The Favourite, and Green Book (which has established itself as the front-runner this year; but that's a discussion for another day). BlackKklansman was an early favorite, but still has enough support to make it in. The Golden Globes taught us not to underestimate Bohemian Rhapsody. And who could have seen Black Panther coming?! A Marvel superhero movie being nominated for the highest honor in Hollywood? It seems impossible, but the film has become such a cultural touchstone that it's everywhere right now. I predict it will do what The Dark Knight and Wonder Woman before it couldn't accomplish: receive a nomination for Best Picture.
If I'm wrong, the list will include one or more of the following films: Crazy Rich Asians, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place.
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Adam McKay, Vice
I'm pretty confident about these five, although it seems like a long shot that the director of Dumb and Dumber will get an Oscar nomination- but Peter Farrelly has wowed critics and audiences alike with his latest crowd-pleaser.
Yorgos Lanthimos may get nominated for The Favourite, but I suspect that film's support is falling a little bit.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Bale, Cooper, Malek, and Mortensen are all sure bets here. The last spot, I'm predicting will go to the lead in BlackKklansman (he's Denzel Washington's son!), but if I'm wrong, then Robert Redford will get a nomination for his final (for now) screen performance in The Old Man & the Gun.
Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Although Mary Poppins Returns may have lost steam since its opening (this sequel is good, but nowhere near as sensational as the original film), Emily Blunt is being universally praised for her performance in the title role. She, Close, Colman, and Gaga are shoo-ins. Again, that last spot is difficult to predict. Elsie Fisher is wonderful in Eighth Grade, but the consensus seems to be that she's young, she'll have plenty of chances later. Melissa McCarthy is earning rave reviews for her dramatic role in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but I think Nicole Kidman has the Oscar bona fides to get a nomination for her very unglamorous role in Destroyer.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Ali, Driver, and Elliott are the sure bets. Beautiful Boy opened to mixed reviews, largely dashing its Oscar hopes, but the young Chalamet's performance is still being recognized. The final slot may be filled by Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but I'm putting my money on last year's winner Sam Rockwell, for his funny and spot-on performance as George W. Bush.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Adams, King, Stone, and Weisz are the sure bets. (My early money is on Regina King to win.) I feel like A Quiet Place has lost steam since opening in the spring, but Emily Blunt is the new It Girl and may still score a nomination. (She's really the lead of the film, but they're campaigning for her in Supporting here so she can get a lead nomination for Mary Poppins Returns, scoring that ever-elusive double nomination.)
If I'm wrong, other possible contenders are Claire Foy for First Man and Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots.
Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Green Book, Roma (despite it being in Spanish), and Vice are the easy bets. I figure The Favourite will get nominated to support its other categories. And since Eighth Grade is such a small film, I figure this is its best shot at a nod.
Other popular films that could wind up here are First Reformed and A Quiet Place. Both deserve nominations, but may not have the support necessary to secure one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Another category where I'm pretty confident of my predictions.
Can we take a moment to appreciate once again that a Marvel movie could get a writing Oscar nomination?!
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
A notoriously difficult category to predict, since the Academy likes to mix big studio films with foreign films and little-heard-of indies. But, figured I'd take a stab at it. You got the requisite Disney flick (Ralph), the requisite Pixar flick (Incredibles 2), and Wes Anderson's latest stop-motion effort (Isle of Dogs, which may get nominated despite some controversy). Mirai is a critically-acclaimed Japanese anime, and I figured it's got a better shot than The Grinch. Spider-Man is the early favorite to win... maybe because of its quality, maybe because of its limp competition.
That's all the categories I can reasonably predict! Beyond this, I predict that A Star Is Born and Mary Poppins Returns will get nominated for Best Original Song, A Quiet Place will get nominated for Best Sound Mixing, Pixar's Bao will get nominated for Best Animated Short, and that the Best Visual Effects category will be full of blockbusters.
See how I did! The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 22nd.
Greetings avid moviegoers!
Better late than never with my predictions. In my personal opinion, it was a fairly weak year for movies...until Oscar season came around and I started surrounding myself with all the nominees. I quickly realized that my vision was a bit too narrow- just because a movie came out in the summer and made millions of dollars didn't mean that that film is representative of the whole year.
With that newfound optimism I've found in last year's crop of films, let's dive in!
As always, I include my predictions for who I think will win, as well as my personal opinions on who should win, for whoever cares to read them.
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
So this is a tough one. The race is practically a dead tie between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards...but I would swear that Dunkirk is in third place. And Lady Bird has a lot of support, too. Come to think of it, Get Out could pull off an upset win. This Oscar race has been so all over the place it will be truly impossible to predict the winner until the moment the envelope is opened...and even then, we may not know for sure.
I've picked Three Billboards for several reasons: it won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for Best Cast. It touches on several important topics (prejudice, police brutality, justice vs. revenge) but resists being a "message movie". It's funny as all hell. But ultimately I think that the Academy just won't vote for a human-fish monster romance movie as Best Picture of the year. Three Billboards' lack of a Best Director nomination hurts its chances, but if the last ten years or so are an indication, that's no longer a deal-breaker.
Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread's presences in this list are head-scratchers.
What should win: Wonder Woman
Oh, it's not nominated? In that case...
What should win: Dunkirk
Also a difficult choice, even if an ultimately pointless one. While I loved Three Billboards and was charmed by Lady Bird, while I recognize how important a movie The Post is, and while I think Get Out was one of the best, most original movies in decades, I have to go with Christopher Nolan's WWII drama for the feeling it gave me when I was sitting in the theatre. Dunkirk is comparable to Saving Private Ryan is that it so effectively portrays war on screen that it makes the viewer feel like they are on the battlefield (or in this case, the beach) with the soldiers. It doesn't have the hard-R gore that Ryan has, but it makes up for it in abundance with suspense. A true masterpiece from the most talented filmmaker working today.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
However the Best Picture race turns out, del Toro will probably win for his fantasy/romance story of a mute woman who falls in love with a South American river creature- and for somehow making it not creepy. Upsets could come from Nolan or Peele (heck, even Gerwig has a shot!), but most likely those directors will have to win another day.
Who should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
I almost chose Jordan Peele since I selected Dunkirk to win Best Picture, but I simply can't ignore the magnitude of what Nolan has accomplished. With big-budget money and a big studio backing him, he made an intense art film with little entertainment value and an unknown actor playing the lead. War movies have never been done quite like this before.
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
This one is easy. Oldman has had this one all wrapped up for months. His portrayal of Winston Churchill is both uncanny and unrecognizable- he simply becomes the character. If an upset happens, it will come from Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, his last role before retiring. But an upset won't happen.
Who should win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
And yeah, he totally deserves it. He acted his ass off in that movie. Both hilarious and inspiring, he makes you forget you're watching an actor at all.
Shout-outs to Daniel Kaluuya on his surprise nomination (a win in itself) and Denzel Washington, who is so much better than anything else in that boring film he's nominated in.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Who will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Similarly to Best Actor, this award has been decided on months in advance. McDormand will win her second Oscar for playing a pissed-off mother looking for revenge for her murdered daughter. (The movie's a dark comedy, I swear!) Possible upset could come from Sally Hawkins for playing a mute, or from Ronan for playing an angsty teenager (with a perfect American accent).
Who should win: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
I tend to prefer actors who portray real people. And while Meryl Streep was amazing as Katharine Graham, she's always amazing. I was surprised by Robbie's performance as Tonya Harding- both hilarious and vulnerable, both victim and villain. And damn, she can skate!
Saoirse Ronan is also great in Lady Bird, but she's so young I figure she'll have another shot at the award later.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another category that was chosen months in advance. Rockwell will win for his comic performance as a bumbling, racist cop in small-town Missouri. Some controversy surrounding the character in recent weeks could lead to an upset win, my guess from Richard Jenkins as a closeted gay man in the '60s. Plummer's nomination was a real Cinderella story, and thus is its own win.
Who should win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
While The Shape of Water is primarily about the romance between a mute woman and a fish monster, it has a lovely subplot about Jenkins' character, the mute woman's best friend and next-door neighbor, a struggling artist and lonely hermit. Like the other characters in the movie, he's an outcast from society, and thus finds solace in his friends.
Shout-out to Woody Harrelson for being the heart and soul of Three Billboards, a movie seemingly full of characters without hearts.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
While this race seems pretty well decided on, I think there's a little wiggle room. While the obvious choice is Emmy favorite Allison Janney for playing Tonya Harding's abusive and foul-mouthed mother, I feel like Mary J. Blige is right behind her. Both women are unrecognizable in their roles and have the potential to be career-defining. But Janney will likely win for the more popular of the two films, and as hers is the more comedic performance.
In a different year, Laurie Metcalf would easily win as a stressed-out mother everyone can relate to.
Who should win: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
It's true, Janney plays a real person and Blige does not, but the singer made her case as a professional actress with a transformative, heart-breaking performance that stuck with me.
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Difficult to predict. I think as the eventual Best Picture winner, Three Billboards will likely win here. But then again, this category is Get Out's best chance at a win. There's also a possibility Lady Bird will upset. I guess we'll see, but my prediction stands.
What should win: Get Out
Here I can finally choose Get Out, by far the most original movie of the year. A racially-charged horror/comedy made by one-half of the comedy duo of Key & Peele? No one could have predicted this movie, or that it would be so good, or so successful.
Shout-out to The Big Sick for being a comedy disguised as a drama, and to Lady Bird for making the characters relatable even as you hate them.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
What will win: Call Me By Your Name
This one is easy. As the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, Call Me By Your Name will easily win. Mudbound could upset, but not likely.
What should win: Mudbound
My vote goes to the story of two families in the South during and after WWII and how their experiences differ even as they go through similar struggles. A tragic film, to be sure, but still a lovely one.
Shout-out to Logan, the first-ever superhero movie nominated in this category. Who would have thought the world needed an R-rated Wolverine movie?
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
What will win: Coco
Pixar still has this category wrapped around its little finger. Its latest masterpiece, Coco, will win for bringing the Mexican culture into the mainstream, and for being the most imaginative and beautiful film of the bunch.
An upset...won't happen. I won't even speculate.
What should win: Coco
Admittedly I haven't seen all the nominees. But come on. It's gotta be Coco.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
What will win: The Square
This race is between A Fantastic Woman (from Chile) and The Square (from Sweden). Fantastic Woman has the timeliness of being about a transgender woman and her struggling for acceptance, but I'm giving the edge to the Palme d'Or winner from Sweden, costarring American actress Elisabeth Moss.
What should win: ?
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to make a real decision here.
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
What will win: Faces Places
Agnes Varda just won an Honorary Oscar for an entire career making great documentaries previously ignored by the Academy. To have her latest film get nominated is the perfect opportunity to honor her again. An upset could come from the Netflix film Strong Island, about the senseless killing of a black man and the injustice that followed.
What should win: ?
I think Icarus is the best of the films I've seen, but it's not fair to compare that one to films I haven't seen.
Best Original Song
"Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me", Coco
"This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
"Stand Up For Something", Marshall
"Mighty River", Mudbound
What will win: "This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
You heard it in the trailer, you danced to it watching the movie, then you heard it again in TV commercials. The self-empowerment ballad "This Is Me" is the happiest and catchiest song of the bunch, and should walk away victorious.
Its chances are hurt a bit by it being the film's only nomination. If there's an upset it will probably come from "Remember Me", since that song is central to Coco's plot.
What should win: "This Is Me", The Greatest Showman
Yeah, it deserves it. My second-favorite: "Mighty River", sung by the film's own Mary J. Blige.
Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: The Shape of Water
The lovely French-inspired music of The Shape of Water should win here, although I think Dunkirk's music (tick-tick-tick) is more memorable and thus could end up on top if Shape of Water doesn't sweep the technical categories.
What should win: Dunkirk
It's hard to vote against Star Wars- or John Williams!- but the maddeningly suspenseful Dunkirk is so maddeningly suspenseful in large part because of its extremely tense score.
However, The Shape of Water does have the most beautiful music of the bunch.
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Dunkirk
Even if The Shape of Water wins double-digit Oscars and Three Billboards wins Best Picture, it's hard to imagine the Academy giving the Film Editing award to anything other than Dunkirk. Shuttling between three different stories going at three different rates and making it all cohesive was a magic trick the film pulled off splendidly.
What should win: Dunkirk
The suspense of Dunkirk was also due in large part to its editing style, and thus gets my vote.
Shout-out to Baby Driver, which is basically an editing experiment with a movie built around it.
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
What will win: The Shape of Water
Another opportunity to honor Guillermo del Toro's beautiful film. Dunkirk could win too, but I'm guessing Shape of Water will be very successful in the technical categories. Blade Runner got in on raw talent, but a science fiction film won't win here. (Is Shape of Water sci-fi? Feels more like fantasy.)
What should win: Dunkirk
So yeah, I'm admittedly a Nolan fanboy. But you can't deny that he put an IMAX camera in the tiny cockpit of a fighter plane and somehow made it work instead of making it awkward.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
What will win: Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman's transformation into Winston Churchill wasn't acting alone. A fat suit and facial prosthetics helped turn the handsome British actor into one of the greatest leaders the world has ever known, and the Academy will recognize it.
What should win: Darkest Hour
How the hell did The Shape of Water not get nominated here? They literally made a fish monster- and the movie was about the fish monster! In lieu of its nomination, I also choose Darkest Hour.
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
What will win: Phantom Thread
While Beauty and the Beast has pretty yellow dresses and Victoria & Abdul has beautiful garments fit for royalty, Phantom Thread is literally about the world's best dressmaker. This is the film's best chance at a win.
What should win: Phantom Thread
For once, I agree with the choice in this category. If the dresses in the film were anything less than extraordinary, the film would simply not work. Well, the film ultimately doesn't work all that well, but the dresses are extraordinary.
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
What will win: The Shape of Water
I'm predicting Shape of Water will do very well in these categories. The Academy may just give the film a green Oscar! (Did you see Shape of Water? Then you must have seen all the green. So. Much. Green.)
What should win: Blade Runner 2049
I choose Blade Runner for its stunning visuals of a bleak future.
Shout-out to Darkest Hour for a perfect re-creation of time and place (London, 1940).
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
War For the Planet of the Apes
What will win: War For the Planet of the Apes
The first two Apes films in the prequel trilogy were nominated here but did not win. I say, third time's the charm for the motion-capture extravaganza.
Blade Runner could upset for its stunning and startling visuals. That gonzo sex scene could win the award on its own!
What should win: Blade Runner 2049
Again, it's difficult to vote against Star Wars- after all, it also has an Andy Serkis motion-capture performance! But I can't deny the CGI in Blade Runner is a cut above anything else mainstream Hollywood is doing.
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
What will win: Dunkirk
Here's the question for the sound categories: Dunkirk or Shape of Water? While it may be foolish, my guess is that here is where Shape of Water's power over the Academy begins to fade, and they'll give it to the bigger, louder movie.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
Finally! A category where it actually makes sense for Star Wars to emerge victorious. Lightsabers, Wookie growls, Porg squawks, and that epic silent jump to lightspeed- all that is thanks to the sound mixers. And they deserve Oscar gold for it.
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
What will win: Dunkirk
Identical nominees will produce an identical winner. If Shape of Water wins for Sound Mixing, it will win here as well, but I'm still betting on Dunkirk to win both.
What should win: Star Wars: Episode VIII- The Last Jedi
My vote is the same as well. Same reasons, too- I like the lightsaber hum.
Best Live Action Short
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote (All of Us)
What will win: The Silent Child
If they go for the happiest of the shorts, then the comedy The Eleven O'Clock will win it. But The Silent Child is the one that pulls on your heartstrings the most, as it follows a young deaf girl struggling for acceptance in her own family.
DeKalb Elementary is about a school shooting, so... timeliness?
What should win: The Eleven O'Clock
While many of the shorts were great, they were so dramatic and thus I felt could have been expanded into features if the filmmakers had more money. But the short format really excels when it comes to comedy, and The Eleven O'Clock is a masterwork of witty dialogue and humorous misunderstandings.
Best Animated Short
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes- Part One
What will win: Dear Basketball
When Kobe Bryant retired, he wrote a poem that served as both a love song and a good-bye to the sport that had defined his life. Later, he recruited former Disney animator Glen Keane (he drew Ariel!) and legendary composer John Williams to turn his poem into an animated short film. The result will likely earn Kobe Bryant an Academy Award, a sentence I never thought I would write. The film's heartfelt prose and stream-of-consciousness style of animation is so moving it even earns the tears of non-basketball fans.
What should win: Lou
Yeah, I liked Dear Basketball, but Pixar still makes the best short films, and Lou is one of the most imaginative they've ever come up with, and features a sweet anti-bullying message as well.
Best Documentary Short
Edith + Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
What will win: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Difficult to predict. If they go for the most heart-warming, it will be Heaven, about a talented artist with a mental handicap. If they go for the most socially relevant, it will be Traffic Stop, but that HBO film relies heavily on archive footage as opposed to original footage shot by the filmmakers. Thus I think Heaven will win.
What should win: Heroin(e)
The Netflix documentary is about three women in West Virginia who have each dedicated their lives to improving their community, specifically to stopping the heroin epidemic that grips their town. By showing both the ugly side of the town and the strong few who have managed to quit and turn their lives around, we grow to admire these three women in just a few minutes of screen time.
I also liked Knife Skills, about a restaurant that exclusively hires people fresh out of prison, giving them a second chance at life.
That's it! We'll find out how well I did when the Oscars air tomorrow night on ABC.
