Predicting the Oscars can be difficult. Or very simple, depending on the year. This year, the winners seem to be a done deal, except for the few beloved nominees who could potentially upset. After a relatively weak year for movies (in my humble opinion), the stars shine brightest and there really are some good ones up for awards this year. So let's see how good I am at this.
And of course, I have to say, Harry Potter will always be Best Picture in my heart.
I will list which film I think will actually win, and which I think deserves to win. As usual the Academy and I differ on many things.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
What will win: The Artist
What should win: The Help
With nine nominees (a first in Oscar history), how the Academy handles this award will be very interesting. While The Descendants was an early favorite to win, it seems The Artist has all but already won it. While the film is certainly the most unique to come out this year (it's silent with little dialogue, and in black and white) and is an homage to a lost era of Hollywood movies, watching it brings to mind why silent films are no longer made: because without sound, something is missing. The film is clever and funny but does test its viewer's patience; it's not for everyone. However, The Descendants is mostly just unpleasant.
While I found myself surprisingly falling in love with War Horse, Steven Spielberg's ode to World War I and man's love of horses, and Hugo and Moneyball were certainly entertaining, my vote goes to The Help, the film that got people talking, and that turned out to be more than just a Lifetime movie.
For Extremely Loud and The Tree of Life, two good films for specific audiences, they are such long shots that their nominations are their victory. And Midnight in Paris sucks. Sorry.
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Who will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Who should win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
The French director Hazanavicius will win to go along with the film's Best Picture win. If there's an upset, it will probably come from Scorsese (my personal pick), as recognition for his unique and moving film, very against-type for him. They could award Malick for his magnum opus, the trippy and surreal Tree of Life, for sheer balls and strength of vision. But many believe the film doesn't accomplish what it set out to accomplish and critics are definitely split on how good the film is. Allen and Payne are past winners who don't stand much of a chance.
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Who will win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Who should win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
It's a tight race between Clooney and Dujardin, and I can see either of them winning at this point. But being that he's America's sweetheart (as opposed to a French unknown), Clooney is more likely to win for his career-best performance as a dad struggling to hold his family together in the wake of a tragedy. Dujardin brought on comparisons to Charlie Chaplin for his superb performance as an actor caught in the transition between silent films and talkies, and might win. If not, at least he gets my vote.
Hats off to Oldman, a brilliant actor celebrating his first nomination. He will win one day, but not for this film. Same goes for Pitt.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Who will win: Viola Davis, The Help
Who should win: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This race is between Davis and Streep. The former turns in her first-ever lead role and is the best part of an already-great film. The latter is a past winner who breaks her own record this year for most nominations ever for an actress, and plays a real-life former Prime Minister of Britain. The race is tight, but Oscar voters will realize what the rest of us already do: Streep already has two Oscars. Give it to someone who has none.
My vote typically goes to a woman playing a real-life person, but instead is going to Mara, even though I would argue she had to play someone who feels real. Her Lisbeth Salander may be fictional, but has been played in movies before (quite well, I might add), and has been defined in millions of readers' minds all around the world. Casting an unknown in the part was the right move, as she transformed her appearance and turned in a haunting yet believable performance.
And sure, Close played a woman pretending to be a man- an extremely difficult task for an actor- but the film looks boring and no one has seen it. And I may be the only person who thinks Williams didn't get it right as Marilyn Monroe.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Who will win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Who should win: Nick Nolte, Warrior
Plummer has a lock on this award, and everyone else is just here as spectators. He plays an old widower who comes out of the closet in the last months of his life, shocking his son. While von Sydow turns in a great performance as a mute old man trying to connect to a lost little boy, my vote goes to Nolte as an ex-alcoholic father estranged from his two grown sons. Anyone who's seen the movie knows there is one scene in particular that is unforgettable.
Hats off to Hill, the kid from Superbad, who has gotten an Oscar nomination despite his history of doing crude gross-out comedies. As it often is with these things, his nomination is his victory.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Who will win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Who should win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Spencer has a lock on this award, but there is room for an upset. She is the comic relief in her film, and has some great one-liners. McCarthy is a revelation in Bridesmaids, one of the most talked-about performances of the year. The Academy does occasionally honor comedy roles in the supporting acting categories, but McCarthy just won an Emmy a few months back (for the sitcom Mike & Molly), and many believe the award was actually for Bridesmaids. Thus, in their minds, she's already won. An upset could potentially come from the lovely Bejo, since the film has so much love and acting in a silent film is an art no one in this millennium has mastered. People who have seen The Help know Chastain's nomination is mostly for one shocking scene. While her performance is great the whole movie through, one-sceners rarely win here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
What will win: The Descendants
What should win: Hugo
As the early favorite, the super-sappy Descendants will win here. While Moneyball took a potentially boring idea and turned it into something fascinating, my vote goes to Hugo, a very strange story that shouldn't work, but somehow does, thanks to its real emotions and believable characters.
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
What will win: The Artist
What should win: Bridesmaids
It seems that despite it being a silent film, The Artist will win here, and I will applaud it if it does. It is the most unique and daring film this year (with the possible exception of The Tree of Life, which wasn't nominated). Midnight in Paris could still upset- Woody Allen hasn't won an Oscar in years, but the Academy still loves him, and this was the biggest hit of his very long career. Not surprisingly, my pick goes to the crowd-pleaser Bridesmaids, a Hangover for women- and for men who like funny women.
Best Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
What will win: Rango
What should win: ?
This film is just as noteworthy for its omissions than it is for what actually is nominated.
With its exclusion, Cars 2 is the first Pixar feature not nominated here- in fact, it is the first Pixar feature to not be nominated for any Oscars. (And shut up, people: The Adventures of Tintin wasn't snubbed because it's a motion-capture film, it was snubbed because it sucked.)
Both Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots are entries in franchises that have been in this category before. (The original Shrek won ten years ago.) Because of this, and since they're both DreamWorks films, they pretty much cancel each other out. Chico & Rita is a new foreign addition beloved by American critics, and could upset, but the focus seems to be on the Paramount Western/comedy Rango.
I don't have a pick here since none of them seem worthy in my eyes. (I thought Rango was clever at times but ultimately too weird for me.)
Best Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
What will win: The Artist
What should win: War Horse
As it was often literally the only sound in the movie, The Artist's score was extremely important to the success of the film, and will easily win here. However, I don't think it was an extraordinary score. Hugo's music was lovely, but my vote goes to John Williams' epic adventurous score for War Horse. Just check out the piece used in the trailer to see why.
Best Original Song
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets
"Real in Rio," Rio
What will win: "Man or Muppet," The Muppets
What should win: "Man or Muppet," The Muppets
With only two nominees here (a first, also a tragedy), the odds are literally 50/50. While "Real in Rio" is the bigger and more elaborate of the two, voters will go with the more intimate, and funnier "Man or Muppet," which also belongs to the more beloved film. I'm excited to see if these songs will be performed live!
Best Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
What will win: The Artist
What should win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Since this award usually squares up with Best Picture, The Artist should take it despite having unexceptional editing. The award should go to the thriller Dragon Tattoo, an extremely complicated film that surpassed two and a half hours, but never felt confusing or dull. It could still upset, as could Hugo.
Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
What will win: The Tree of Life
What should win: The Tree of Life
While Hugo could upset (I think it's the first 3D film nominated here), and War Horse and Dragon Tattoo both had striking looks, and The Artist does have an advantage since it's in black and white, the Academy and I finally agree on one thing: that The Tree of Life is technically one of the most beautiful movies ever made, and features some of the best camerawork ever put on screen. Expect it to be the only win for this underdog movie.
Best Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
What will win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
What should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Sure, The Iron Lady turned Meryl Streep into Margaret Thatcher, and Albert Nobbs turned Glenn Close into a man, but Harry Potter made goblins! This award does occasionally award genre or monster movies (the last two winners were The Wolfman and Star Trek.) This one is Harry Potter's best shot, and I sense it will win as a way of recognizing the end of the franchise.
(For those who don't know, a Harry Potter movie has yet to win an Oscar in any category. This year is the franchise's last chance.)
Best Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
What will win: Hugo
What should win: Hugo
This award usually goes to the showiest of the costumes. In that case, it would go to Anonymous (Shakespearean times). But I sense that won't be the case. While The Artist is the clear favorite (the 1920s), the film has a distinct disadvantage because it's in black and white. Therefore I think the quasi-magical Hugo will take it (France in the 1930s, and flashbacks to the turn of the century). Jane Eyre (the 1800s) and W.E. (Britain in the 1940s) are just token nominations without much of a chance.
Best Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
What will win: Hugo
What should win: Hugo
The visually stunning Hugo doesn't have a big chance at Best Picture, so I predict a mini-sweep of the technical categories. (Like what Inception did last year.) War Horse was also a beautiful film, showing the horrors of a forgotten war. I would vote for Harry Potter, but that film was set primarily in familiar locations (Gringotts bank, Hogwarts castle) where the look was established in earlier films. Again, The Artist is a handsome film, but is at a disadvantage because it's in black and white.
Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
What will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
What should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
A very interesting category, and one that's hard to predict. Real Steel's fighting robots looked good, but its effects are not nearly big enough to compete with the rest of the pack. Hugo's special effects are subtle and are used to help the story. Since it's the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, it has a strong chance here. Both Harry Potter and Transformers have big, epic special effects used in huge battle scenes, and are both part of franchises that have been nominated here before but cruelly never won. Any of those three has a fighting chance, but with all the hoopla surrounding Andy Serkis and the motion-capture phenomenon, I sense Planet of the Apes will take it, despite this being its only nomination.
Of course, I vote for Harry Potter. The last film in this amazing series deserves some love.
Best Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
What will win: Hugo
What should win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
This award is for specific sound effects. This usually, but not always, goes to a blockbuster, a film that is technically-inclined. In that case it would be either Dragon Tattoo or Transformers, with the latter being the clear choice for impressive sound effects. However, as mentioned before, Hugo will probably have a mini-sweep in the technical categories, including here.
Best Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
What will win: Hugo
What should win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
This award is for the film's overall sound. It usually goes along with Sound Editing, but not always. While Dragon Tattoo could upset, Hugo will probably take this one as well.
Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
What will win: A Separation
What should win: ?
A Separation is the clear favorite here, a divorce drama from Iran. In Darkness is a Holocaust film and could upset. None of these films is a big hit here in the States.
Best Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
What will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
What should win: ?
Pina is probably the favorite here (and Undefeated is building buzz too), but Paradise Lost is the most relevant: this is the story of the West Memphis Three, which aired on HBO shortly after they were released from prison, unofficially acquitted of triple murders they did not commit. (This is not the film that Peter Jackson made, although they are undoubtedly similar.)
Best Live Action Short
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
What will win: The Shore
What should win: ?
Who cares?
Best Animated Short
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
What will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
What should win: ?
La Luna is a Pixar film, which will run theatrically this summer with their feature film Brave. Nobody has seen it, which is exactly my problem with the three short awards: nobody has seen them, so how can anybody vote on them?
Best Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
What will win: Saving Face
What should win: ?
Again...who cares?
That's everything! The Oscars will be broadcast live this Sunday (!) at 6:30pm MST, on ABC. See you then!
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