My first and most important prediction: Seth MacFarlane will say something offensive. With little to no live television experience, he is an odd choice to host this year's Academy Awards, but when you think about it, he's not a bigger risk than, say, James Franco and Anne Hathaway. The creator of TV's Family Guy will undoubtedly make this a night to remember.
And now on to the main event! Starting with the big awards first, I give my thoughts on who will win and who deserves to win. (Keep in mind that last part is just my humble opinion.)
Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Argo
What should win: Argo
This is the most interesting Best Picture race in long time. With nine nominees (for the second year in a row), there's a lot of clutter. There are films that don't really belong here, films that would have won in weaker years, and more than a couple that could conceivably take it. Argo was the front-runner back in the fall, then got left behind and forgotten when other films like Lincoln, Silver Linings, and Zero Dark came out. Then the Oscar nominations were announced, and Ben Affleck was snubbed for Best Director. True, Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper were also snubbed (for Zero Dark and Les Miserables, respectively), but the world concentrated on Affleck, and what an outrage it was. Thus, Argo suddenly became a front-runner again. It's hard to fathom that if Affleck had been nominated, it would probably be Lincoln winning the award, that the fact that Argo will win is as much a sympathy vote as it is people opening their eyes to a great film.
Despite everything I just said, I can still see Lincoln winning tomorrow night. It is the traditional Oscar choice, and it would be nice to give Steven Spielberg another Best Picture film (Schindler's List is his only one). And Silver Linings Playbook makes a strong third choice- if this film performs better than expected in the acting categories, it could upset.
Zero Dark Thirty was an early front-runner, but without a Best Director nomination it doesn't stand much of a chance. Amour and Beasts have their fans, but the films are too small and will probably be forgotten come Oscar night. (I see Beasts walking away completely empty-handed.) Life of Pi is a great film and won't be forgotten- in the technical categories. It will submit to the other films for the major awards. And I absolutely loved Django- but it's not really what you'd call the best picture of the year, and the Academy will agree.
Finally, for my opinion: while I enjoyed Lincoln's performances and sense of time and place, the movie itself left me wanting more. I think it would have been a stronger film if they had chosen to do a traditional biopic instead of focusing solely on Abraham Lincoln's final months. Argo, on the other hand, despite being based on a true story, is the most original movie of the year, with a gonzo plot and mixtures of political drama, top-rate suspense, and surprising humor that actually works, it deserves the award for Best Picture.
Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Who will win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Who should win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
This will be the rare year in which the Best Picture and Director races won't match up. No one really knows what Haneke and Zeitlin are doing here- no one in America has heard of either of them and they have plenty of time to win an Oscar later in their careers. Russell would probably win in a weaker year, but not this year. And Lee's film simply doesn't have the support to win a major award. Spielberg is still considered the greatest living filmmaker, and it's time to honor him again, with what will be his third Best Director award.
Personally, I thought Life of Pi was a stronger and more heartfelt film, and a much more difficult one to pull off. Add to that he made 3-D a must-see format instead of just a fad, like James Cameron's Avatar, and you have to take Lee seriously.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Every once in a while the Academy gets it right. This year they will. There are few people so world-famous as Abraham Lincoln, so it's a daunting task for any actor, but Day-Lewis actually managed to bring us something we hadn't seen before- or at least, heard. His decision to play Lincoln with a high voice was shocking to most Americans, but once you realized it was historically accurate, it actually strengthened his performance and gave him a commanding grace as the legendary President. He will become the first person to win Best Actor three times.
Cooper would have won in a weaker year, but with Day-Lewis in the running he doesn't stand a chance. I loved Washington as an alcoholic pilot, but the film doesn't have a lot of love. Phoenix is still being labeled as Hollywood's weirdo and still has to win back some fans before he can win an Oscar. And Jackman... well, he's a good singer.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
While Riva could take this one (they Academy does love to honor its old folks, and she's the oldest woman ever to be nominated), it will most likely go to Lawrence as a young emotionally devastated widow. Chastain is great as the woman in charge of the hunt for Osama bin Laden, but her character is a little too emotionally withdrawn to be of real consideration here. Watts also broke a lot of hearts, but her film simply doesn't have the support needed. And Wallis? She's 9. Let her grow up, she can win one later.
Personally, I wanted to vote for Chastain, but felt compelled to vote for Lawrence, the best actress of her generation. I stand by my belief that she was miscast in Silver Linings Playbook- she was way too young for the part, and especially to be Bradley Cooper's love interest. She accepted a role she was not right for and made something special of it- and that's why I want to honor her, if not necessarily the film itself.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Who will win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Who should win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Very difficult to predict. It seems to be between De Niro and Jones, but even Waltz could upset. My gut tells me they will go with De Niro as he is such a legendary actor and he managed to reveal several aspects of himself and of this character in the film. But Jones played a real person (Rep. Thaddeus Stevens), which is a far more difficult thing to do, and he has a couple of unforgettable moments in Lincoln. Waltz was a fantastic actor in a film filled with fantastic actors- but he won an Oscar for Quentin Tarantino's last film, Inglourious Basterds. To win again for another Tarantino film would feel redundant. Even though Arkin gives a breath of fresh comedic air to Argo, his is pretty much a token nomination. And The Master won't generate any winners among these other heavy hitters.
I'm a fan of De Niro, but my choice is still Waltz, who made you fall in love with him as the scenery-chewing bounty hunter.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Who will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Who should win: Sally Field, Lincoln
It was decided months ago that Hathaway would win. Despite her limited screen time, she sings "I Dreamed a Dream," which makes people cry, even after the song's been sung 25 years on the stage. I hate musicals and wouldn't bet against Field. She has two Oscars to her name (and at least a couple of Emmys), and as the First Lady, the scenes between the President and his wife were the best in the film. It's not exactly clear why Weaver was nominated- her performance isn't particularly powerful or memorable. She's just a token nomination which allows the film to boast that it's nominated in all four acting categories. Hunt is incredibly bold in The Sessions, but as the film's sole nomination, she will not win. Besides, she already has an Oscar. And I am a self-professed Adams fan, but The Master still won't win anything.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
What will win: Lincoln
What should win: Argo
Argo and Silver Linings have a lot of support, but with Lincoln nominated here, no one else stands a chance. Like I said earlier, I personally believe Lincoln could have been a better film, so even though I want to vote for it, I feel compelled to vote for Argo, the most original film of the year. (Despite the fact that this is the adapted category.)
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Zero Dark Thirty
What should win: Django Unchained
Another difficult category to predict. It could conceivably go to any of the three Best Picture nominees here, but I feel that Zero Dark Thirty has the advantage of being based on a true story, and one that's still fresh in everyone's minds. Quentin Tarantino could conceivably win another writing Oscar for his slavery revenge saga, and he's my personal choice for sheer entertainment power. I liked Flight, but the film dragged in the middle. Fans of Wes Anderson would love to see him win for Moonrise Kingdom, but it's the film's only nomination and doesn't stand a chance. And why the hell is a French film (Amour) nominated for a writing Oscar?
Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates!: Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
What will win: Wreck-It Ralph
What should win: N/A
This category is between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph. Pixar usually commands this award, but because Brave felt like a B effort from the animation juggernaut, it will instead go to Disney's video-game-themed Ralph. The other films have their fans, but don't have nearly enough support (or box-office grosses) to justify a win.
I haven't seen enough of the nominees to justify my own opinion here.
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch
What will win: Amour
What should win: N/A
As the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, Amour will easily take the award. None of the other nominees are even really relevant.
Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man
What will win: Searching For Sugar Man
What should win: N/A
The Invisible War could take it as it is the most relevant film for America in this day and age (it's about the prevalence of rape and sexual assault on women in the military), but the Academy will go for feel-good instead with Sugar Man, about a forgotten singer given a second chance at fame.
Now on to the technical categories! If you don't care about the lesser Academy Awards, feel free to stop reading now.
Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
What will win: Life of Pi
What should win: Lincoln
Difficult to predict. I can count out Argo and Anna Karenina since their scores don't have that much to offer. Skyfall's music is excellent for a dark action/adventure, but it's hard to imagine the score for a Bond film winning here. John Williams' score for Lincoln is my personal favorite (and could win) for his sweeping orchestra, but the mix of Indian and Western styles for Life of Pi (kinda similar to Slumdog Millionaire's score) will take it.
Best Original Song
"Before My Time," Chasing Ice
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Ted
"Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi
"Skyfall," Skyfall
"Suddenly," Les Miserables
What will win: "Skyfall," Skyfall
What should win: "Skyfall," Skyfall
The songs from Chasing Ice and Ted are the eyebrow-raisers here. Neither are particularly good and only serve to shed some light on those films. (Sorry, Seth MacFarlane!) "Suddenly" has a small chance as it's the only original song from the musical extravaganza, but it's not a memorable tune, especially compared with something like "I Dreamed a Dream." "Pi's Lullaby" is beautiful, but it's more a piece of score than a real song. Adele's "Skyfall" will take it simply because it's the best song. Not only does it perfectly represent everything that a Bond movie is, but it works just fine on its own. We've all heard it on the radio!
This will be the first Bond theme song to win an Oscar, although some have been nominated in the past. (How did Paul McCartney's "Live and Let Die" not win?!)
Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Argo
What should win: Argo
This award typically goes along with the Best Picture winner, so Argo will probably take it, for its mixing of genres and its sometimes unbearable suspense. Think about it: the film's climax is essentially clearing customs. But they made you invested in every second. Zero Dark Thirty could also take it, since it also has a lot of suspense. Or even Life of Pi: 75% of the film is a boy and a tiger in a boat, but the film doesn't feel long or boring.
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
What will win: Life of Pi
What should win: Life of Pi
Each film here has its virtues- Anna Karenina largely takes place on a stage, so the camerawork has to be creative in order for the film to not feel locked down in one place. Skyfall's Jason Bourne-like camerawork helped to heighten the action, and Django looked just like a classic Western. Lincoln could take it for helping to establish a certain mood, but following on the footsteps of last year when the 3-D film Hugo won it, Life of Pi's visual style helped to tell the story, and used the third dimension to help it instead of hinder it.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
What will win: Les Miserables
What should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Turning Anthony Hopkins into Alfred Hitchcock was a bit of movie magic, but everyone knows that makeup was used, so it kind of lessens the effect. My vote is for The Hobbit (noticeably less popular at the Oscars than the Lord of the Rings trilogy) for bringing to life hobbits, dwarves, elves, and wizards alike. Recently though, the Oscars don't go for monsters in this category, so they'll honor the many hairstyles and aging techniques for the characters in the decades-spanning Les Miserables.
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
What will win: Les Miserables
What should win: Snow White and the Huntsman
This award typically goes to the film with the showiest costumes: the bigger, the better. That would go to either Anna Karenina or Les Miserables. Since the latter is a Best Picture nominee, it will probably get it. Lincoln's costumes were grand, not to mention historically accurate, but they were a little too subdued for the Academy's liking. Meanwhile, there's the battle of the Snow White films: While Snow White and the Huntsman is a dark retelling of the fairy tale, Mirror Mirror is a lighter, family-friendly version. Compare the two dresses for the two Evil Queens and it's clear which film deserves the Oscar. Besides, I'm a fantasy fan.
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
What will win: Lincoln
What should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
This category wisely changed its name from Art Direction this year. It's is similar to Costume Design, but unlike that category the Academy likes to honor most realistic-looking sets. While Life of Pi makes great use of its Indian location, the majority of the film takes place on the sea- not much production design needed. Les Miserables and Anna Karenina have big, sweeping, beautiful sets, but it's the incredible detail used in Lincoln to re-create Washington, D.C. in 1865 that will take the Oscar.
And not surprisingly, my vote goes to the fantasy film. The Hobbit brought both new and familiar places from Middle-Earth to life on the screen. I'll remind everyone that they had to create everything from scratch.
Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
What will win: Life of Pi
What should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
As the only Best Picture nominee here, Life of Pi will win here- and I applaud giving the award to a non-blockbuster. However, as viewers we're very aware that the tiger in the movie is actually a visual effect. All of these movies have beautiful (or haunting) visual effects, and are spectacular to watch, but if I'm going to pick the most realistic looking of the films, I have to go with The Hobbit- the new and improved Gollum, the orcs, the trolls, even the locations. And let's not forget that because of the complexities of having Gandalf and the dwarves together, visual effects are needed just to show the main cast together on screen. My second choice is Prometheus for the creepy crawlies.
Best Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
What will win: Skyfall
What should win: Skyfall
This award usually goes to the more technically-inclined film. While one could make an argument for the Western Django, it should be between Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall. As the latter has actual action sequences, it should easily take it.
Best Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
What will win: Les Miserables
What should win: Skyfall
There has been much talk that all the actors in Les Miserables had to sing live instead of pre-recording. It didn't exactly help the movie, but despite that, this is where you honor the film for doing that. Or, they could go another way and match Sound Editing by giving this award to a very action-oriented film, Skyfall. Otherwise Life of Pi makes sense here- on the ocean, his world is often very quiet- but the movie can't be, lest you lose your audience.
I'm not gonna do the short films this year because, let's face it, no one cares.
So that's it! The Oscars are tomorrow night (Sunday, February 24th) on ABC. Don't miss it!
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